Seasonal MACD & ETF Portfolio Update: Double-Digit Gains Abound
By: Christopher Mistal
May 02, 2017
As of the today’s close, both the faster moving MACD “Buy” and slower moving MACD “Sell” indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 are still positive. Recent sideways trading is beginning to put pressure on the positive trends of the MACD indicators, but they still remain positive. To turn the slower moving MACD “Sell” indicator negative, single day losses by DJIA and S&P 500 would need to exceed 2.64% (over 553 points) and 2.5% (nearly 60 points) respectively. 
[DJIA Daily Bar Chart]
[S&P 500 Daily Bar Chart]
Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.
ETF Portfolio Update
Since issuing our Seasonal MACD “Buy” Alert on October 24, 2016, core Best Months Switching Strategy positions in SPDR DJIA (DIA), iShares Russell 2000 (IWM), PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) and SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) have all advanced an average of 14.1% as of yesterday’s close. All four positions have achieved above historical average returns for the current “Best Months” period. Other positions added on the same date are also performing well, up 14.2% on average.
On April 25, SPDR Materials (XLB) traded above $53.45 for the first time. Per last month’s ETF Trades Alert, the existing long position was sold (for a 14.1% gain) and a short position was established (as of yesterday’s close, a modest 0.7% gain was present). Direxion Daily Jr. Gold Miners 3x (JDST), another trade idea from early last month has run away and this trade is cancelled. The original trade price of $13.00 has been adjusted to $52.00 due to a recent 1-for-4 reverse split.
Other short trade ideas from last month in SPDR Financials (XLF) and iShares DJ Transports (IYT) have not been executed yet. If the short IYT trade reaches its buy limit before we issue our Seasonal Sell Alert, the existing long position will be closed out at the same time the short position is established.
Seasonal strength in copper typically runs from mid-December to mid-April or early May. This year copper appears to have peaked in February and has been weak since. Sell iPath Bloomberg Copper ETN (JJC). For tracking purposes, JJC will be closed out using its average daily price on May 3.
All long positions remain on hold. Please see table below for updated stop losses and current advice.
[Almanac Investor ETF Portfolio – May 1, 2017 Closes]
Disclosure Note: At press time, officers of the Hirsch Organization, or accounts they control held positions in FXB, IWM, IYT, QQQ, SPY, VNQ, XLB, XLE, XLP, XLV and XLY.