Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy Update
By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal
May 17, 2017
As of today’s close, both the slower moving MACD indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 are negative (arrows in charts below point to a crossover or negative histogram on the slower moving MACD used by our Seasonal Switching Strategy to issue a sell). At this time, we are issuing our official Best Six Months MACD Seasonal Sell signal for DJIA and S&P 500. NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” last until June.
[DJIA Daily Bar Chart]
[SP500 Daily Bar Chart]
SELL SPDR DJIA (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), Vanguard REIT (VNQ), iShares DJ Transports (IYT), SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY). For tracking purposes these positions will be closed out of the portfolio using their respective average prices on May 18. 
Continue to HOLD technology and small cap related ETFs as NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” ends in June.
Continue to HOLD SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) and SPDR Healthcare (XLV). XLP and XLV have demonstrated over the years to be productive, defensive positions during the “Worst Six Months.”
Consider BUYING half positions in iShares 20+ Year Treasury (TLT) on dips with a Buy Limit of $123.50 and iShares Core US Aggregate Bond (AGG) on dips with a Buy Limit of $109.50
Open short trade ideas in iShares DJ Transports (IYT) and SPDR Financials (XLF) can be shorted. IYT could be shorted on a bounce near $159.74 or on a breakdown below $156.60. XLF could be shorted on a bounce to $23.50 or on a breakdown through $22.90.
Half positions could also be considered on dips in SPDR Utilities (XLU), iShares Silver (SLV) and SPDR Gold (GLD). Buy limits are in table below.
Traders/investors following the Best 6 + 4-Year Cycle switching strategy detailed on page 62 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2017 should heed this signal.
For positions not previously mentioned, please see table below for latest advice. Also note, several stop losses have been raised as a result of today MACD Seasonal Sell signal. The Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio will be updated tomorrow, May 18.
[Almanac Investor ETF Portfolio – May 16, 2017 Closes]
Disclosure Note: At press time, officers of the Hirsch Organization, or accounts they control held a position in FXB, IWM, IYT, QQQ, SPY, VNQ, XLE, XLP, XLV and XLY.