June Almanac, Stats & Strategy Calendar: NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” End By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal | May 25, 2017 | Email | Print

The first month of summer has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 46 years as a rule ranking sixth with a 0.7% average gain, up 25 of 46 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking tenth.

 

In post-election years since 1953, June still ranks poorly and its average loss for DJIA and S&P 500 increases to –1.2% and –0.7% respectively compared to –0.3% and –0.03% in all years. DJIA in particular struggles, advancing in just three post-election year Junes (1977, 1985 and 1997). NASDAQ and Russell 2000 fare best in June, posting modest average gains.

 

 

The second Triple Witching Week of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. On Monday of Triple-Witching Week DJIA has been down twelve of the last twenty years. Triple-Witching Friday is better, up nine of the last fourteen years, but mixed over the past 20 years, up eleven, down nine with an average loss of 0.3%. Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. Weeks After Triple-Witching Day are horrendous. This week has experienced Dow losses in 24 of the last 27 years with average losses of 1.1%.

 

June’s first trading day is the Dow’s best day of the month, up 22 of the last 29 years. Gains are sparse throughout the remainder of the month until the last three days when NASDAQ and Russell 2000 stocks begin to exhibit strength. The last day of the second quarter is a bit of a paradox as DJIA has been down 17 of the last 26 while the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have nearly the opposite record, although, since 2003 technology and small-caps indices have been dragged down by their large-cap brethren.