Seasonal MACD Update: Still on Hold By: Christopher Mistal | October 05, 2017 | Email | Print

As of today’s close, our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal is still on Hold. Our 8-17-9 MACD “Buy” indicator applied to S&P 500 and NASDAQ turned positive on September 29 (blue arrows in charts of S&P 500 and NASDAQ below). DJIA’s MACD “Buy” indicator turned positive on October 2 (red arrow in DJIA chart). 

 

The criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal is a new buy signal using our 8-17-9 MACD indicator on or after the first trading day of October and DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ must be in agreement. Because S&P 500 and NASDAQ MACD indicators turned positive on the last day of September the criteria was not satisfied.

 

 

This criterion has been in place for multiple years and was detailed as recently as last year in three separate email Alerts (10/11/2016 second paragraph, 10/13/2016 last sentence and 10/18/2016 first sentence after Seasonal MACD Buy Signal Update subhead). This is a change when compared to the earlier years of Almanac Investor. The change was the result of a thorough review of the strategy, the application and use of the MACD indicator and was prompted by the market’s action back in October of 2007.

 

MACD’s greatest benefit is the crossovers that it generates. The crossovers reflect a change in momentum, for better or worse. To maximize the benefits of MACD a new crossover is required. In an effort to reduce the chances of a false signal, we require a new crossover on all three indices, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ.

 

The current criterion maintains the original methodical, emotionless execution of our Seasonal Switching Strategy while ensuring we are getting the maximum benefits of using a MACD indicator.