Seasonal MACD & Stock Portfolio Updates: Market Wavers, But Indicators Remain Positive
By: Christopher Mistal
April 19, 2018
Seasonal MACD Update
As of the today’s close, the slower moving MACD “Sell” indicator (at bottom of following charts highlighted in yellow box) applied to DJIA and S&P 500 were positive and trending higher. Combined with improvements in other technical indicators this is an encouraging sign that suggests additional gains are possible. Today was also the third straight day that DJIA and S&P 500 closed above their respective 50-day moving averages which is also supportive of the case for further market gains in the near-term.
[DJIA Daily Bar Chart]
[S&P 500 Daily Bar Chart]
Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.
Stock Portfolio Updates
Over the last four weeks, S&P 500 was down 0.1% and Russell 2000 was higher by 0.3% as of yesterday’s close. The Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio’s blend of cash and long positions slipped 1.3% over the same time period excluding dividends and any trading costs. Our Mid-Cap portfolio was the worst performer down 3.9%. Small-Caps were best, but still edged 0.2% lower.
Overall, the top performers in the portfolio continue to lead or at worst move sideways. Global Brass and Copper Holdings (BRSS) is one such position that was little changed over the last month. Large-cap holding, Unitedhealth (UNH) however enjoyed a modest move higher and is the best performing position in the portfolio.
Other positions such as Patrick Industries (PATK) did not fare as well. PATK was stopped out on April 17 when shares sank below the stop loss. Shares were above $67 four weeks ago and have been steadily declining since.
Shares of Synnex Corp (SNX) were stopped out on April 2 when it plunged below its stop loss due to a disappointing earnings report that showed over a 60% decline in earnings. The position in SNX was closed out of the portfolio using its average price on April 3.
Last month’s Seasonal Sector Trades idea, Hershey Company (HSY) was added to the portfolio on March 21 when it traded below its buy limit of $98.75. For a handful of days in late March HSY was a profitable position, but it has slipped lower and closed below its stop loss of $94.50 today. HSY will be closed out of the portfolio using its average price from tomorrow in the next update.
With the “Best Six Months” end on the horizon, all positions in the Stock Portfolio are on hold. Please see following table for current advice, buy limits and stop losses.
[Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio – April 18, 2018 Closes]
Disclosure Note: At press time, officers of the Hirsch Organization, or accounts they control held positions in BUSE, FAF, G, HII, LII, MHO, ORBK and SNX. They did not hold any positions in the other stocks mentioned in this Alert, but may buy or sell at any time.