June Almanac: Worst Month in Midterm Years By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal | May 24, 2018 | Email | Print

 

In midterm years since 1950, June ranks no better than ninth. June is the #12 DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 month in midterm years. Average losses range from 1.4% by Russell 1000 to 1.9% from S&P 500. Of the five indexes, none has a winning track record in June. All have declined more than they have risen.

 

 

The second Triple Witching Week of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. On Monday of Triple-Witching Week the Dow has been down thirteen of the last twenty-one years. Triple-Witching Friday is better, up ten of the last fifteen years, but weaker over the past 25 years, up fourteen, down eleven with an average loss of 0.22%. Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced Dow losses in 24 of the last 28 years with average losses of 1.1%. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have fared better during the week after, up five of the last seven years.

 

June’s first trading day is the Dow’s best day of the month, up 23 of the last 30 years. Gains are sparse throughout the remainder of the month until the last three days when NASDAQ and Russell 2000 stocks begin to exhibit strength. The last day of the second quarter is a bit of a paradox as the Dow has been down 17 of the last 27 while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have nearly the opposite record.