Seasonal MACD Buy Signal Update: Buy Signal Triggers

By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal

October 31, 2018

Faster moving MACD “Buy” indicators applied to DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all positive as of today’s close. At the highs of the day, the crossover was clear in the charts below (blue arrows), but at the close only DJIA’s crossover is clearly visible. Regardless of the crossover’s magnitude, the criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal have been satisfied. With all three indices confirming, we are now issuing our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal.

Buy SPDR DJIA (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), Invesco QQQ (QQQ), and iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) in the Almanac Investor Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy Portfolio. For tracking purposes, these ETFs will be added to the portfolio using their respective average prices on November 1. This price will be calculated by summing the high and low prices and dividing by two. Buy limits for DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM are initially today’s closing price plus 1%. For example if today’s closing price was $100, then the buy limit would be $101 (close * 1.01 = buy limit).

In the Almanac Investor Sector Rotation Portfolio, Buy XLV, XLP, IYW, IYT, IYZ, SOXX, XLY, XLF, XLI, XLB, XLK and VNQ. For tracking purposes, these ETFs will be added to the portfolio using their respective average prices on November 1. Use a 1% Buy Limit for these positions as well as detailed above. IYW, IYZ, XLY, XLF, XLK and VNQ are already held in the portfolio, but we are going to add to these existing positions. IYT, SOXX, XLI and XLB were added earlier in October and stopped out near the end. Establish new positions in these four ETFS.

Sell iShares US Aggregate Bond (AGG). iShares 20+ Year Bond (TLT) was stopped out on October 5 and SPDR Utilities (XLU) was stopped out on October 11 when it closed below its 1% trailing stop loss.

The Almanac Investor Stock and ETF Portfolios will be updated in the next regularly scheduled Alert tomorrow Thursday, November 1.