Seasonal MACD Update: By a Thread
By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal
April 18, 2019
As of the today’s close, the slower moving MACD “Sell” indicator (at bottom of following charts) applied to S&P 500 has turned negative. (blue arrow points out shrinking difference between the two lines). However, DJIA’s MACD “Sell” indicator is still positive. Because DJIA’s indicator remains positive, the criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Sell Alert has not been satisfied. Currently, a single-day DJIA decline in excess of 1.08% would be needed to turn DJIA’s MACD indicator negative. A single day gain of 0.50% or more by S&P 500 would turn S&P 500’s MACD indicator positive.
Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.
[DJIA Daily Bar Chart]
[S&P 500 Daily Bar Chart]
Earnings season is underway and will kick into high gear next week. The bar for Q1 earnings has been set quite low which could provide the catalyst for stocks to challenge old all-time highs this month. A surge higher by DJIA and S&P 500 would likely delay our Seasonal MACD Sell Signal even further. And should earnings disappoint, our Seasonal MACD Sell Signal could lock in existing gains and avoid any market retreat.