June Almanac: Better in Pre-Election Years By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal | May 23, 2019 | Email | Print

 

In pre-election years since 1950, June ranks no better than mid-pack. June is the #8 DJIA month in pre-election years averaging a 0.8% gain with a record of nine advances in seventeen years. For S&P 500, June is #5 with an average gain of 1.2% (10-7 record). Pre-election year June ranks #6 for NASDAQ and #7 for Russell 2000 with average gains of 1.9% and 1.1% respectively. Recent pre-election year Junes in 2015, 2011 and 2007 were troublesome for the market as DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all declined (Russell 2000 eked out a modest gain in 2015).

 

 

The second Triple Witching Week of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. On Monday of Triple-Witching Week the Dow has been down thirteen of the last twenty-two years. Triple-Witching Friday is better, up ten of the last sixteen years, but weaker over the past 26 years, up fourteen, down twelve with an average loss of 0.23%. Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced Dow losses in 25 of the last 29 years with average losses of 1.09%. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have fared better during the week after, but this trend appears to be fading.

 

June’s first trading day is the Dow’s best day of the month, up 24 of the last 31 years. Gains are sparse throughout the remainder of the month until the last three days when NASDAQ and Russell 2000 stocks begin to exhibit strength. The last day of the second quarter is a bit of a paradox as the Dow has been down 17 of the last 28 while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have nearly the opposite record.