Seasonal MACD & Stock Portfolio Updates: Waiting for All Clear
By: Christopher Mistal
October 10, 2019
Seasonal MACD Buy Signal Update
As of today’s close, our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal is still on Hold. Our 8-17-9 MACD “Buy” indicator applied to DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all negative (blue arrows in charts below). Currently, single day gains of 197.27 DJIA points (0.74%) and 14.80 S&P 500 points (0.50%) are needed to turn the MACD indicators positive for DJIA and S&P 500. NASDAQ’s MACD will turn positive if it does not decline more than 36.33 points (0.46%).
As a reminder, the criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal is a new buy signal using our 8-17-9 MACD indicator on or after the first trading day of October and DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ must be in agreement. These criteria are not yet satisfied.
[S&P 500 MACD Chart]
Stock Portfolio Update
In the time since last update through yesterday’s close the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio slipped 0.1% lower compared to a 2.7% loss by S&P 500 and a 6.1% decline from the Russell 2000. The portfolio’s sizable cash position played a part in capping losses as did the high concentration of defensive stocks held. Mid-cap positions in the portfolio actually advanced 0.2% due to solid gains by Algonquin Power (AQN) and One Gas Inc (OGS). Large-caps slipped 0.3% lower as Abbott Labs (ABT) and Expeditors International (EXPD) suffered notable losses.
This year’s defensive stock basket, presented on June 20 has performed reasonably well. The entire basket has an average gain of 5.1% (includes stopped out positions, excludes dividends and trading fees) compared to a loss of 1.2% by S&P 500 over the same time period. Of the original 19 positions, fifteen were added to the portfolio. Four positions ran away and were cancelled. Of the fifteen added, three were stopped out and twelve remain active holdings. Five of these positions are up double digits lead by a 18.6% gain by Pattern Energy (PEGI). Dull yet familiar AT&T (T) is second best with a 17.2% gain. 
Currently two positions from the defensive basket are negative, Centerpoint Energy (CNP) and Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP). The declines are currently modest and not overly troublesome. CNP has a 4.1% dividend yield and KDP is 2.2% which was one of the primary reasons for purchasing them. Continue to Hold CNP and KDP.
All positions held in the portfolio are on Hold. The “Worst Months” are still in progress. Continue to limit new buying. Please see table below for updated stop losses. Later this month we anticipate preparing a new basket on stock ideas to trade during the upcoming “Best Months” period.
[Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio Table – October 9, 2019 Closes]