Seasonal MACD Update: Rally Stalling
By: Christopher Mistal
April 23, 2020
Seasonal MACD Update
As of yesterday’s close, DJIA and S&P 500 have edged slightly lower compared to last update. DJIA is now up 7.3% so far this April which is a retreat of 0.1% since last Thursday. S&P 500 is also 0.1% lower now than one week ago at 8.2%. Thus no progress has been made at returning the current “Best Six Months” to positive territory. NASDAQ has also slipped modestly lower of the last five trading days. This pause is not entirely unexpected as the rally off of March’s lows has been robust and data and forecasts are only beginning to catch up and reflect the impact of the coronavirus.
DJIA Daily Bar Chart
[S&P 500 Daily Bar Chart]
The rally has stalled out this week and MACD is still positive but is now trending toward a negative crossover (indicated by the blue arrows highlighting the falling daily bars). Continue to hold long positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s “Best Six Months.” We will issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal. 
Although MACD’s trend has changed, as of today’s close it would still take a single-day decline of nearly 12% (this is not a typo) by DJIA and S&P 500 to turn MACD negative.