Market at a Glance - 3/30/2023
By: Christopher Mistal
March 30, 2023
Please take a moment and register for our member’s only webinar, April 2023 Outlook and Update on Monday April 3, 2023, at 2:00 PM EDT here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for April, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the Fed, inflation, recession prospects, as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
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Market at a Glance
3/30/2023: Dow 32859.03 | S&P 4050.83 | NASDAQ 12013.47 | Russell 2K 1768.38 | NYSE 15200.59 | Value Line Arith 8870.28
Seasonal: Bullish. April is the #1 performing DJIA month of the year since 1950, #2 month for S&P 500 and #4 for NASDAQ. Pre-election year performance has been stellar, DJIA +3.9%, S&P 500 +3.5%, NASDAQ +3.6%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have only declined once in pre-election year April. But stay vigilant as our Seasonal MACD Sell Signal for DJIA and S&P 500 can trigger on or after April 3 this year.
Fundamental: Mixed. Weaknesses in the banking sector have been exposed, inflation is still elevated, Federal debt ceiling is still up in the air and corporate earnings are currently forecast to have declined in Q1. However, PPI is declining, 311k net new jobs were added in February, weekly initial jobless claims are still under 200k, and Q1 growth is currently forecasted to be 3.2% by Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow. These are not the ideal conditions for the market, but likely good enough to stave off an economic hard landing and recession.
Technical: Rebounding. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all reclaimed their respective 200-day moving averages. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are bullishly above their 50-day moving averages. Year-to-date NASDAQ strength has produced a bullish golden cross (50-day moving average rising through and above 200-day). MACD indicators are all positive and trending higher confirming the change in direction and momentum. Resistance at previous recovery highs could prove formidable with steps along the way. 
Monetary: 4.75 – 5.00%. Recent bank failures have only added further uncertainty to the outlook for monetary policy. Banks could tighten lending standards and give the FOMC a hand fighting inflation or perhaps not, since the banks are essentially being backed by the Federal government. Likely it only reinforces the data dependent nature of the FOMC and if inflation continues to moderate then the Fed will eventually stop increasing rates. Until uncertainty retreats, the market is likely to continue to trade choppily.
Sentiment: Neutral. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 40.8%. Correction advisors are at 32.4% while Bearish advisors numbered 26.8% as of their March 29 release. Compared to a month ago there has been little change. Bullish advisors are modestly higher at the expense of bearish advisors. Overall sentiment is supportive of additional gains.