Market at a Glance - 11/30/2023
By: Christopher Mistal
November 30, 2023
Please take a moment and register for our member’s only webinar, December 2023 Outlook and Update on Wednesday December 6, 2023, at 2:00 PM EDT here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for December, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the Fed, inflation, the "Best Months" as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
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Market at a Glance
11/30/2023: Dow 35950.89 | S&P 4567.80 | NASDAQ 14226.22 | Russell 2K 1809.02 | NYSE 16088.84 | Value Line Arith 9179.46
Seasonal: Bullish. December is the third best month for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000. It is Russell 2000’s second best month. In pre-election years, performance has been even stronger with average gains ranging from 2.7% from DJIA to 4.2% by NASDAQ. Tax-loss selling can weigh on the first half of December. Free Lunch to be served before the market opens on December 18. January Effect of small-cap outperformance usually begins mid-December. Santa Claus Rally begins on December 22 and runs until January 3.
Fundamental: Mixed. Q3 GDP was revised higher to 5.2%, but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is now estimating Q4 growth of just 1.8%. Inflation metrics continue to indicate cooling inflation, but year-over-year prices are still rising, and inflation remains above the Fed’s target. Employment data is still reasonably firm with some signs of softness. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated despite a temporary cease fire between Israel and Hamas. Perhaps these are the early signs of a soft economic landing. 
Technical: Breaking out? DJIA has closed at a new recovery high and is less than 900 points from its all-time closing high. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are nearing their respective recovery closing highs from July. Those old highs are presenting some resistance that could be eclipsed before yearend. All three indexes at new recovery highs would be further confirmation the bull market remains intact and is likely to continue.
Monetary: 5.25 – 5.50%. The Fed is most likely done with rate hikes. The desired soft economic landing appears to be unfolding. To maintain credibility, it will not be surprising to see the Fed remain hawkish on inflation as it reminds all that it is data-driven and data-dependent. As long as interest rates are not rising or expected to rise, the market will have one less concern to contend with.
Sentiment: Holiday Cheer. According to Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 55.7%. Correction advisors are at 22.9% while Bearish advisors numbered 21.4% as of their November 29 release. Broad market gains have lifted bullish sentiment, but not yet to lofty levels. Because it is the holiday season and the “Best Months,” elevated bullish sentiment is less concerning.