Please take a moment and register for our member’s only webinar, March 2024 Outlook and Update on Wednesday March 6, 2024, at 2:00 PM EDT here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for March, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the Fed, inflation, the "Best Months" as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
2/29/2024: Dow 38996.39 | S&P 5096.27 | NASDAQ 16091.92 | Russell 2K 2054.84 | NYSE 17607.43 | Value Line Arith 10155.16
Seasonal: Bullish. Usually a solid performing market month, March is the fifth best month of the year for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950 averaging gains of 1.0% and 1.1% respectively. Steep losses in 1980 and 2020 dampen performance in election years. Election-year March ranks #7 for DJIA and S&P 500, #11 for NASDAQ and #12 for Russell 2000.
Fundamental: Fair? Q4 GDP estimate came in today at a solid, 3.2%. Although revised down from 3.3%, there was an upward revision to consumer spending. Based upon GDP, growth appears to be in the comfort zone, neither too fast nor too slow. Headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) have ticked lower but remain stubbornly above the Fed’s stated 2% inflation target. Corporate earnings have been fair, but future estimates are being trimmed which is stretching some valuations.
Technical: Stretched? Four straight months of gains with DJIA, S&P 500 and today NASDAQ Comp hitting new all-time closing highs have pushed technical indicators into or near overbought readings. With earnings season winding down, the market appears poised for some consolation of recent gains and a reset of technical indicators. Briskly rising 50-day moving averages are first support levels, currently around: DJIA 38000, S&P 500 4880, and NASDAQ 15330.
Monetary: 5.25 – 5.50%. Expectations have somewhat adjusted to the likelihood that the Fed will not be aggressively cutting rates this year but may need to adjust further yet. The Fed has historically only been aggressive with action in response to a crisis. Absent a crisis, rate increases and cuts have been data dependent and methodical. Based upon the Fed’s track record and inflation’s recent stubbornness, even a June rate cut appears overly optimistic now.
Sentiment: Cautious. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 57.6%. Correction advisors are at 25.7% while Bearish advisors numbered 16.7% as of their February 28 release. Bullish sentiment remains near levels that have historically been associated with periods where caution was prudent.