Please take a moment and register for our member’s only webinar, May 2024 Outlook and Update on Wednesday May 1, 2024, at 4:00 PM EDT here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for May, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the Fed, inflation, “Best Months,” the election as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
4/25/2024: Dow 38085.80 | S&P 5048.42 | NASDAQ 15611.76 | Russell 2K 1981.12 | NYSE 17731.56 | Value Line Arith 10009.57
Seasonal: Neutral. May is the first month of the Worst Six Months for DJIA and S&P 500, but NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months runs through June. In election years, May has been tepid ranking #9 for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950, #8 for NASDAQ and Russell 2000. Average election year May performance ranges from –0.4% by DJIA to +0.6% from Russell 2000.
Fundamental: Mixed. Advance estimate for Q1 GDP came in well below estimates at just 1.6% while associated inflation metrics were hotter than expected. Advance GDP estimates are often revised so Q1 may not have been as weak as first reported. Nonetheless, this was a significant slowdown compared to the second half of 2023. Corporate earnings have been choppy with some misses and disappointing guidance, but not a total wash. Employment data continues to hold up with weekly initial claims holding right around 200,000. Tepid growth and lingering inflation have not been a historically good combination for the market.
Technical: Pullback. From their closing highs through closing lows, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have declined 5.2%, 5.5% and 7.1% respectively. All three are currently trading below their 50-day moving averages, but also remain above their key 200-day moving averages. The rally that started earlier this week is taking a hit today, but the recent lows appear to be holding. Should the rally resume, 50-day moving averages could be resistance while the 200-day moving averages are key support levels.
Monetary: 5.25 – 5.50%. Next week the Fed will meet again, and they are expected to leave rates unchanged. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the first month to have a chance of a rate cut over 50% is currently September. Based upon recent inflation data, even September still seems somewhat optimistic.
Sentiment: Retreating. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 46.2%. Correction advisors are at 32.3% while Bearish advisors numbered 21.5% as of their April 24 release. Bullish sentiment has fallen after holding above 50% since mid-January but is neutral at best at or near current levels.