Over the last 53 years June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking seventh best with an 0.9% average gain, up 30 of 53 years (since 1971). This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but with an 0.1% average gain. Small caps have tended to fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.8% in the month since 1979 advancing 64.4% of the time. During the bear market in 2022, Russell 1000 and 2000 suffered their worst June losses ever, dropping 8.5% and 8.4% respectively. S&P 500 and NASDAQ also dropped over 8% that year.
![[Recent 21-Year June Seasonal Chart]](/UploadedImage/AIN_0624_20240523_June_2024_Seasonal_Chart.jpg)
Over the last twenty-one years, the month of June has been a rather lackluster month for the market. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have fared better logging average gains of 0.4% and 0.8% respectively. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days. From there the market then drifted sideways and lower near or into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. From there the market rallied to create a mid-month bump that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
In election years since 1950, June has followed a similar pattern to the recent 21-year period, but gains have been notably stronger, and all five indexes finish the month positive. Average June gains in election years range from 0.9% by DJIA to 1.9% by NASDAQ.
June is the #5 DJIA month in election years averaging a 0.9% gain with a record of thirteen advances in eighteen years. For S&P 500, June is #3 with an average gain of 1.3% (15-3 record). Election-year June ranks #3 for NASDAQ and #5 for Russell 2000 with average gains of 1.9% and 1.6% respectively. This performance improvement is most likely the result of the presidential candidate field being sufficiently narrowed (in past election years), and the ultimate nominees being identified.
The second Triple Witching Week of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. On Monday of Triple-Witching Week, DJIA has been down fifteen of the last twenty-seven years. Triple-Witching Friday is somewhat softer. DJIA has been up seventeen of the last thirty-four years, but down eight of the last nine. Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 28 of the last 34 years with average declines of 0.8%. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 fared better during the week after, but that trend appears to be fading.
![[June Vital Stats Table]](/UploadedImage/AIN_0624_20240523_June_2024_Vital_Stats_table.jpg)
June’s first trading day is the Dow’s best day of the month, up 28 of the last 36 years. Gains are sparse throughout the remainder of the month until the last three days when NASDAQ and Russell 2000 stocks begin to exhibit strength. The last day of the second quarter was a bit of a paradox as the Dow was down 17 of 24 from 1991 through 2014 while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 had nearly the opposite record. Since 2015, all indexes have had a bullish bias on the last trading day while DJIA and S&P 500 up ten of the last thirteen.