Please take a moment and register for our member’s only webinar, June 2024 Outlook and Update on Wednesday June 5, 2024, at 2:00 PM EDT here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for June, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the Fed, inflation, NASDAQ’s “Best Months,” the election as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
5/30/2024: Dow 38111.48 | S&P 5235.48 | NASDAQ 16737.08 | Russell 2K 2056.60 | NYSE 17852.36 | Value Line Arith 10231.72
Seasonal: Neutral. June is the last month of NASDAQ’s Best Eight Months. Historical performance has been tepid for DJIA and S&P 500 while NASDAQ averages 0.9% in June since 1971. In election years, June has been stronger, gains range from 0.9% for DJIA to 1.9% for NASDAQ. NASDAQ has advanced in 8 of the last 13 election year Junes. NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD Sell Signal can trigger as soon as June 3 (first trading day of June).
Fundamental: Softening. Today’s second estimate of Q1 GDP was revised lower to 1.3%. This is a sizable slowdown from the 3.4% of Q4 2023. Although still low, the unemployment rate has also been slowly trending higher from 3.7% in January to 3.9% in April. Inflation is still elevated and stubbornly refusing to resume trending lower. A soft landing may still be possible, but it looks like there could be some bumps along the way.
Technical: Mixed. DJIA has come under pressure and has been retreating since its first close above 40,000. Key support around 37,700 is coming back in play. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are holding up largely due to mega-cap tech stocks but have been hit the past few trading days. First level of support for S&P 500 and NASDAQ is around their respective highs from late March. With S&P 500 closing below 5250 today, support is now its 50-day moving average around 5180. For NASDAQ support appears around 16500.
Monetary: 5.25 – 5.50%. The May Fed meeting was uneventful. The upcoming June 11-12 meeting is also likely to be a nonevent as the CME Group’s FedWatch tool currently has a 0% chance of a Fed cut and a 1.1% chance of a rate hike. The same tool does not have the odds of a rate cut solidly above 50% until November. Without a marked improvement in inflation data, even November seems unlikely.
Sentiment: Frothy. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 58.2%. Correction advisors are at 23.9% while Bearish advisors numbered 17.9% as of their May 29 release. Bullish sentiment had retreated with the market in April, but rapidly rebounded with the market in May with Bullish advisors rising to 59.4% just after DJIA closed above 40,000. With sentiment at frothy, bullish levels, caution is once again prudent.