As of today’s close, the slower moving MACD “Sell” indicator applied to NASDAQ is negative. At the start of trading today, following the previous session’s loss, NASDAQ needed to gain more than 274.23 (+1.57%) today to keep MACD positive. Today’s gains on turnaround Tuesday were simply not enough. NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” has come to an end. We are now issuing our Seasonal MACD Sell signal for NASDAQ.
Sell Invesco QQQ (QQQ).
Sell iShares Russell 2000 (IWM).
For tracking purposes, these positions will be closed out of the Tactical Switching Strategy ETF Portfolio using their respective average prices on Wednesday, June 26.
Existing positions in TLT, AGG and BND on are Hold. Cash, money market, and/or short-duration bond ETFs like SHV and SGOV are likely to be the least risky during the “Worst Months” this year. SHV and SGOV can be considered at current levels.
Sell the SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) position in the Sector Rotation ETF Portfolio established last October. For tracking purposes, we will also close out the position in SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) from last October. There is a separate XLP trade associated with the “Worst Months” that was presented on May 9, which can still be considered on dips below its buy limit of $76.20. XLY will be closed out using its average price on Wednesday, June 26.
iShares US Technology (IYW) was closed out of the portfolio on June 12 when it first traded above its auto sell price of $146.54. If you have not already closed out IYW, you may consider doing so now that NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD signal has triggered.
Today’s NASDAQ Seasonal MACD sell signal is not timely considering NASDAQ’s historical Midyear Rally begins tomorrow and usually runs until July 12 (ninth trading day of July). One way to trade the Midyear rally would be to continue to hold QQQ with a tight trailing stop loss, perhaps 1%, updated daily on the close. If the Midyear rally takes hold, additional upside will be enjoyed, but if the rally fades then existing gains will still be protected.
As a reminder, members following the Best 6 + 4-Year Cycle switching strategy on page 64 of the 2024 Almanac need not heed this seasonal sell signal as the strategy is still in its holding period and remains so until post-election year 2025.