Please take a moment and register for our member’s only webinar, November 2024 Outlook and Update on Wednesday November 6, 2024, at 2:00 PM EST here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for November, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the economy, Fed, inflation, the election as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
10/31/2024: Dow 41763.46 | S&P 5705.45 | NASDAQ 18095.15 | Russell 2K 2196.65 | NYSE 19238.95 | Value Line Arith 10869.21
Seasonal: Bullish. November is the first month of the Best 6 & 8 Months, and the first month of the best consecutive three-month span, November to January. November is also the best S&P 500 month of the year since 1950, second best for DJIA and NASDAQ (since 1971). In election years, November maintains its top month status with average gains ranging from 0.6% by NASDAQ to 2.5% by Russell 2000 (since 1979).
Fundamental: Landed Softly. Yesterday’s Q3 (advance estimate) of GDP was 2.8%. This is a modest slowing from Q2’s 3% but still a fair number. Employment data has also softened slightly yet remains adequate with continued monthly job gains. Inflation remains a thorn as its pace of retreat has slowed substantially while remaining above 2%. Corporate earnings are following a similar trend, slightly softer than first estimates, but still growing although with some notable individual company beats and misses.
Technical: Consolidating. DJIA, S&P 500, and finally NASDAQ broke out to new all-time highs in October but are pulling back ahead of Election Day. DJIA was first to start pulling back and closed below its 50-day moving average today. S&P 500 and NASDAQ are just above their respective 50-day moving averages. Levels to watch are around DJIA 41500, S&P 500 around 5650 and NASDAQ 17800.
Monetary: 4.75 – 5.00%. If you get selective with inflation data, another 0.25% interest rate reduction from the Fed next week seems reasonable. However, it may not be that simple as inflation data is still above the Fed’s stated 2% target and the pace of inflation’s retreat appears to be stalling out. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) excluding food and energy or “core” PCE, has been lingering around 2.6-2.7% year-over-year since May.
Sentiment: Bulls Moderate. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 57.6%. Correction advisors were at 20.4% while Bearish advisors numbered 22.0% as of their October 30 release. Bullish advisors tended to drift higher throughout most of October, peaking at 58.3% before easing to the current reading. Overall sentiment remains bullish, and historically it is not unusual for it to remain so through yearend.