Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, December 2024 Outlook and Update on Wednesday December 4, 2024, at 2:00 PM EST here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for December, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the economy, Fed, inflation, post-election year 2025 prospects as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
11/21/2024: Dow 43870.35 | S&P 5948.71 | NASDAQ 18972.42 | Russell 2K 2364.02 | NYSE 19968.30 | Value Line Arith 11461.26
Seasonal: Bullish. December is the second month of the Best 6 & 8 Months and of the best consecutive three-month span, November to January. December is the third best month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, second best for Russell 2000. In presidential election years, December is #2 for DJIA and S&P 500, #5 NASDAQ, and the best Russell 2000 month of the year. Watch for early signs of the “January Effect” around mid-December (STA p. 112 & 114). Free Lunch (STA p. 116) is scheduled to be served before the market opens on December 23. Our Santa Claus Rally (STA p. 118) begins on December 24 and runs until January 3, 2025.
Fundamental: Improving? GDP has softened modestly but remains around 3%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has retreated from its recent peak of 4.3% to 4.1%. Corporate earnings have been generally firm. Inflation is an issue stubbornly remaining above 2%, but it has cooled enough for the Fed to begin loosening monetary policy. Prospects for lower taxes and less regulation are increasing. Historically, any combination of lower taxes, less regulation, and/or falling interest rates has supported the market.
Technical: Consolidating. After breaking out to new all-time highs following Election Day, DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ retreated. Support levels have held and all three are still above their respective 50-day moving averages. Recent Russell 2000 strength brought it close to its now 3-year-old all-time closing high. If today’s gains hold and momentum builds, the consolidation could be over or at the least near its end. After which, additional new market highs are anticipated. A breakout by Russell 2000 would be bullish and further strengthen the case for additional highs.
Monetary: 4.50 – 4.75%. The Fed is in a rate-cutting cycle and short-term interest rates are heading lower. At what pace and just how low are open for debate. As of November 21, the
CMEGroup’s FedWatch Tool has the odds of a December rate cut at 55.9%. Not exactly conclusive, but it does suggest another cut before yearend remains likely. We expect the Fed will remain data dependent but will also likely attempt to avoid upsetting the market at the same time. Overall, monetary policy is a positive for the market.
Sentiment: Seasonal Cheer. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 60.0%. Correction advisors are at 21.7% while Bearish advisors number just 18.3% as of their November 20 release. Overall sentiment remains bullish, and historically it is not unusual for it to remain so through yearend supported by holiday cheer, yearend bonuses, and special one-time dividend payments.