Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, 2025 Annual Forecast and January 2025 Outlook on Wednesday January 8, 2025, at 2:00 PM EST here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their 2025 Forecast and outlook for January, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. With the results of the Santa Claus Rally and First Five Days, we will share our assessments of the economy, Fed, inflation, post-election year 2025 as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
12/19/2024: Dow 42342.24 | S&P 5867.08 | NASDAQ 19372.77 | Russell 2K 2221.50 | NYSE 18958.21 | Value Line Arith 10968.17
Seasonal: Bullish. January is the last month of the best three consecutive months. Although average performance and rankings have taken a hit due to weakness since 2000, January is still #1 NASDAQ (since 1971) month of the year and #6 for DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1950). Post-election year Januarys have been mixed and weaker based upon average performance. Our Santa Claus Rally ends on January 3, the First Five Days finish on the eighth and our January Barometer gives its read at month’s end. When all three are positive, our January Indicator Trifecta is nearly perfect with 29 S&P 500 full-year gains in 32 years.
Fundamental: Fair. Q3 GDP was revised up to 3.1% earlier today while the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is projecting Q4 growth at 3.2%. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%. Corporate earnings have been generally firm, but a surging U.S. dollar and potentially higher tariffs on imports could slow or erode them. Inflation lingers but it is not running away.
Technical: Consolidating. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all logged new all-time closing highs in December. Russell 2000 has not. Blame the Fed, inflation & interest rates, profit taking, or tax-loss selling for all the major indexes retreating this week. All four indexes have fallen below their respective 50-day moving averages but 200-day moving averages are holding. As long as 200-day moving averages hold, then the current pullback is likely just consolidation in advance of the next move higher.
Monetary: 4.25 – 4.50%. The Fed did cut at its December meeting exactly as expected. However, the Fed also updated its outlook to reflect the recent lack of progress with inflation. Instead of a presumed four rate cuts in 2025, the Fed now sees just two. This may just be a more realistic view based upon inflation remaining stubbornly above 2%, but it still somehow managed to “surprise” the market. At least the market can now go back to hoping for more rate cuts in 2025.
Sentiment: Easing. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 59.0%. Correction advisors are at 24.6% while Bearish advisors number just 16.4% as of their December 18 release. Overall sentiment remains bullish but began softening last week. There will likely be even fewer bulls next week. Bullish sentiment can and has remained elevated for extended periods around the holidays. Any significant departure could be a potential issue. That has not yet occurred.