Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, February 2025 Outlook & Update on Wednesday February 5, 2025, at 2:00 PM EST here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for February 2025, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the economy, Fed, inflation, geopolitical events as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
1/30/2025: Dow 44882.13 | S&P 6071.17 | NASDAQ 19681.75 | Russell 2K 2307.45 | NYSE 20166.22 | Value Line Arith 11538.16
Seasonal: Neutral. February is the weak link of the “Best Months.” Although up more often than down, February ranks just #8 for DJIA, #11 for S&P 500, and #10 NASDAQ. In post-presidential-election years, February has been even weaker ranking last for S&P 500 and NASDAQ with average losses of –1.3% and –3.0% respectively. February’s first trading day has been strong, and the market has tended to rally in the first half of the month, but gains tend to fade after mid-month, and even sooner in post-election years.
Fundamental: Fair. Q4 GDP came in at 2.3% and full-year GDP for 2024 was 2.8%. Consumer spending remained firm in Q4 at 4.2%. Unemployment data continues to be respectable with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Inflation, however, remains stubbornly above 2%. Corporate earnings are also largely holding up despite a stronger dollar and lingering tariff concerns.
Technical: Diverging. S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high last week. DJIA has not but is trending in that direction while NASDAQ has not done so since December 16. DeepSeek’s AI model hit technology shares earlier this week and concerns linger. Bullishly, all three indexes are currently above their respective 50-day moving averages and technical indicators are improving yet stretched. On the downside, the first half of January lows are the first line in the sand to monitor around: DJIA 41900, S&P 500 5830, and NASDAQ 19100. Across the board, new all-time highs would be bullish.
Monetary: 4.25 – 4.50%. At the conclusion of the Fed’s latest meeting on January 29, it again acknowledged inflation is still elevated while economic activity and the labor market has remained firm. The Fed reiterated it remains data dependent in regard to any future monetary policy actions. Based upon GDP data and recent inflation metrics, the Fed’s target interest rate is likely neutral. However, it is continuing to shrink its balance sheet which would make overall monetary policy still lean toward tight. It is unlikely they will raise or lower their benchmark interest rate without a corresponding established trend in inflation data.
Sentiment: Retreated. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 47.5%. Correction advisors are at 23.0% and Bearish advisors number 29.5% as of their January 29 release. After peaking at 62.9% in early December, Bullish advisors retreated all the way down to 42.4% by mid-January. Over the same period, Bearish advisors surged from 16.1% to 32.2%. Excessively bullish sentiment has abated, leaving room for any positive market momentum to build. However, should the market falter, bullish sentiment could slip even lower.