As part of the Best Six/Eight Months, March has historically been a respectable performing month with DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 & 2000, advancing more than 64% of the time with average gains ranging from 0.7% by Russell 2000 to 1.1% by S&P 500. Over the recent 21-year period (2004-2024), March has tended to open positively with gains accumulating over the first three trading days. A bout of weakness has followed (solid arrow below) before all indexes begin moving higher around mid-month through month’s end.
In post-election years since 1950, March has also tended to open strongly, but strength has generally persisted until shortly after mid-month (dashed arrow below). At which point, the major indexes lost momentum and closed out March with some choppy trading. One possible reason for stronger performance in post-election-year Marchs is the historically tough time the market has had in past post-election-year Februarys. Despite today’s (February 20) market retreat, this February is still above its historical average performance which could limit or weigh on early March gains.
![[Recent 21-Year March Seasonal Pattern Chart]](/UploadedImage/AIN_0325_20250220_March_2025_Seasonal_Chart.jpg)
March packs a rather busy docket. It is the end of the first quarter, which brings with it quarterly Quadruple Witching and an abundance of portfolio maneuvers from The Street. March Quad-Witching Weeks have been quite bullish in recent years. But the week after has been nearly the exact opposite, DJIA down 22 of the last 37 years—and often down sharply. In 2018, DJIA lost 1413 points (–5.67%) Notable gains during the week after for DJIA of 4.88% in 2000, 3.06% in 2007, 6.84% in 2009, 3.05% in 2011, and a staggering 12.84% in 2020, are the rare exceptions to this historically poor performing timeframe.
Post-election year payments to the Piper have exacted a toll on March as average gains are trimmed. (see Vital Statistics table below). In post-election years March ranks: #7 for DJIA and S&P 500; # 8 for Russell 1000 and Russell 2000; and #9 for NASDAQ. NASDAQ also has the largest change in its average performance, dropping from +0.8% in all Marchs since 1971 to a loss of 0.1% in 13 post-elections years. NASDAQ’s massive 14.5% drop in 2001 is only partially offset by its impressive 10.9% advance in 2009.
Saint Patrick’s Day is March’s sole recurring cultural event. Gains on Saint Patrick’s Day have been greater than the day before and the day after. Perhaps it’s the anticipation of the patron saint’s holiday that boosts the market and the distraction from the parade down Fifth Avenue that causes equity markets to languish. Or maybe it’s the fact that Saint Pat’s often falls in historically bullish Quad-Witching Week.
Whatever the case, since 1950, the S&P 500 posts an average gain of 0.27% on Saint Patrick’s Day (or the next trading day when it falls on a weekend), a gain of 0.07% the day after and the day before averages a 0.11% advance. S&P 500 median values are 0.17% on the day before, 0.23% on Saint Patrick’s Day and 0.07% on the day after. In the ten years when St. Patrick’s Day fell on a Monday, like this year, since 1950, the day before (Friday) produced an average gain of 0.04%, while Tuesday averaged 0.15% and the following Wednesday averaged 0.55%.