Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, March 2025 Outlook & Update on Wednesday March 5, 2025, at 2:00 PM EST here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for March 2025, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the economy, Fed, inflation, geopolitical events as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
2/27/2025: Dow 43239.50 | S&P 5861.57 | NASDAQ 18544.42 | Russell 2K 2139.66 | NYSE 19808.15 | Value Line Arith 10944.07
Seasonal: Neutral. Usually a solid performing month, March has tended to be softer in post-election years as it is the last month of the historically weak Q1. In post-election years since 1950, March ranks #7 for DJIA and S&P 500, #9 for NASDAQ. Average performance slips to a low of –0.1% from NASDAQ to a best of 0.8% by S&P 500. In the recent 21-year period, March has tended to open softly but then suffer weakness through mid-month before rallying to its finish. Post-election year Marchs tend to open well and exhibit strength until just after mid-month before struggling to close out the month.
Fundamental: Mixed. Inflation remains a major issue for the market. Growth is cooling as the revised Q4 GDP was essentially unchanged earlier today at 2.3%. Slowing growth has allowed longer-term interest rates to retreat modestly, but they are not likely to fall much further without a reversal in recent inflation data trends. Tariffs and rapid-fire changes by the new administration only further sour the market’s mood.
Technical: Testing Support. DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ have all slipped below their respective 50-day moving averages. NASDAQ’s chart is weakest as it has fallen through its January low. S&P 500 appears to be headed toward a retest of its January low. DJIA is least bad with the greatest breathing room until its January low. Key levels to watch first are around DJIA 42300, S&P 500 5835, NASDAQ 18350. Should these levels break, the odds of a Q1 correction (at least a 10% pullback from recent highs) increase.
Monetary: 4.25 – 4.50%. The Fed has struggled to contain inflation, and progress appears to have stalled. January’s reading of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), due out tomorrow, February 28, could easily be hotter than expected and could further stress the market and the Fed. Current market expectations for the next Fed interest rate cut are not until its June meeting. At this juncture, this seems a bit optimistic given the recent trend in inflation data.
Sentiment: Souring. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 44.3%. Correction advisors are at 31.1% and Bearish advisors number 24.6% as of their February 26 release. Patience may be wearing thin for the market. A feeble and failed break-out attempt has many traders and investors reassessing the overall market. Should technical support fail, sentiment is likely to become even darker. It is important to note that the sentiment extremes associated with historical market lows still have not materialized. Current sentiment suggests caution remains a prudent course.