April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 1, the first trading day of the month. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 11, 2024, through today’s close (March 20, 2025), DJIA is off 2.1% and S&P 500 is down 2.62%. Results this year have been hampered by tariff uncertainty, AI cost jitters, geopolitical concerns heaped onto elevated technology valuations and last year's well above average gains. However, time does remain for the market to improve and return the “Best Months” back to green.
As you can see in the above chart of the recent 21-year market performance in April and post-election years since 1950, the month has been nearly perfect with gains steadily building from the first trading day to the last with only the occasional and minor blip along the way. In post-election years, April does tend to open on the soft side, but the early dip has historically been shallow and brief.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit, declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market declining 4.9% that year and 5.0% again in 2024. April is now the second-best month for DJIA and S&P 500 (since 1950) and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
The first trading day of April and the second quarter has enjoyed notable strength over the past 30 years, advancing 21 times with an average gain of 0.28% in all 30 years for DJIA. However, six of the nine declines have occurred in the last twelve years. The largest decline was in 2020 when DJIA declined 4.44% (973.65 points). Other declines were in 2001, 2002 and 2005. S&P 500’s record on April’s first trading day matches DJIA, 21 advances in 30 years. NASDAQ’s recent performance is slightly weaker than DJIA and S&P 500, but the day is still bullish for technology stocks in general with more advances than declines during the same period. April’s second trading day has also been notably strong over the past 21 years.
The last trading day of April has exhibited a bearish bias over the last 21 years. DJIA has declined 15 times with an average loss of 0.39% in all years. S&P 500 has declined 14 times, average loss of 0.49%. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have been just as weak (based upon frequency of declines) as DJIA on the last trading day, but their respective average losses are 0.75% and 0.95%.
The first half of April used to outperform the second half, but since 1994 that has no longer been the case. The effect of April 15 Tax Deadline appears to be diminished with bullish days present throughout April. Traders and investors appear to be more focused on first quarter earnings and guidance throughout the entire month of April.
In post-election years, April remains a top performing month ranking second best for DJIA and S&P 500, and third best for NASDAQ. Average gains since 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500 are comparable to all years, but notably improve for NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. NASDAQ’s three post-election year April declines were in 1973, 1993 and 2005.
Monthly options expiration week frequently impacts the market positively in April and DJIA has the best track record since 1990, with an average gain of 1.15% for the week with just eight declines in 35 years. However, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 have all declined in the last three years during the week of April’s monthly option expiration. The first trading day of expiration week and monthly expiration day have been mixed, but generally bullish with positive average gains being the majority. The week after has a softer long-term record but also still exhibits modest levels of bullishness.
Good Friday (as well as Passover and Easter) lands in April this year. Historically the longer-term track record of Good Friday (page 102 of STA 2025) is bullish on the trading day before with notable average gains by DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. NASDAQ has advanced 21 of the last 24 days before Good Friday. Monday, the day after Easter, has had exactly the opposite record since 1980 and is in the running for the worst day after any holiday. Since 2004 the day after has been improving with S&P 500 up 13 of the last 21 with an average gain of 0.07%.