Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, May 2025 Outlook & Update on Wednesday April 30, 2025, at 2:00 PM EST here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for May 2025, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the economy, tariffs, Fed, inflation, geopolitical events as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
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Market at a Glance
4/24/2025: Dow 40049.95 | S&P 5472.11 | NASDAQ 17166.04 | Russell 2K 1952.82 | NYSE 18895.41 | Value Line Arith 10174.39
Seasonal: Neutral. Although May is the first month of the “Worst Six Months” for DJIA and S&P 500, NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” last until June and in post-election years, May has been better. Since 1950, in post-election years May ranks #4 for DJIA and S&P 500, #2 for NASDAQ and #1 for Russell 2000. Average gains in post-election year Mays range from 1.3% by DJIA to 3.6% by Russell 2000.
Fundamental: Mixed. Next week Q1 Advance GDP will be released, but the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is estimating a Q1 decline of 2.4% as of their April 24 release. Even their alternative, gold adjusted, model is forecasting a 0.4% decline. The unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.2% with 228,000 new jobs in March. Inflation is cooling again with easing energy prices but remains above the Fed’s 2% stated target. Does any of this really matter though? Tariff driven headline risk is still high. Negotiations are underway though no official new trade deals have been announced yet.
Technical: Bottom in? Early April’s waterfall decline did significant damage to technical indicators. Numerous support levels failed and “death crosses” appear on DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 charts. However, it appears the healing process has begun. Indexes have bounced from the lows, at least partially retested them and could be tracing out a new “w” bottom pattern. Before this pattern can be called successful, resistance at old support levels will need to be overcome. Levels to watch are around DJIA 40500, S&P 500 5500, NASDAQ 17600. Above these levels are respective declining 50-day moving averages.
Monetary: 4.25 – 4.50%. It seems the Fed is not going to cut rates until it is ready to or the next crisis hits. As of today, April 24, there is essentially no chance for a rate cut in May and just a 62.7% probability of a cut in June according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. They were late when inflation rapidly accelerated and are just as likely to be late on the opposite side of the curve.
Sentiment: Sinking. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 23.5%. Correction advisors are at 41.2% and Bearish advisors were at 35.3% as of their April 23 release. From the report, it was noted that Bullish advisors are currently at the lowest level since November 2008. Bearish advisors are at levels last observed around the fall of 2022 near the end of the bear market. The spread between bulls and bears is negative. Sentiment suggests reduced risk as those that wanted out of the market are out and in cash. But, with tariff uncertainty remaining it may still be reasonable to hold higher levels of cash.