June Almanac & Vital Stats: NASDAQ & Russell 2000 Best By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal | May 22, 2025 | Email | Print

Over the last 54 years June has favored NASDAQ ranking sixth best with a 1.0% average gain, up 31 of 54 years (since 1971). This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. However, June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but with a 0.2% average gain. Small caps have tended to fare better in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.8% in the month since 1979 advancing 63.0% of the time. During the bear market in 2022, Russell 1000 and 2000 suffered their worst June losses ever, dropping 8.5% and 8.4% respectively. S&P 500 and NASDAQ also declined by over 8% that year.

 

 

Over the last twenty-one years, the month of June has been a rather lackluster month for the market. DJIA and Russell 1000 have recorded modest average losses in the month. S&P 500 has been essentially flat, averaging +0.002%. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have fared better, logging average gains of 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days. From there the market has tended to drift sideways and lower near or into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. From there the market has rallied to create a mid-month bump that generally has quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month-end rally led by technology and small caps. 

 

In post-election years since 1950, June has followed a similar pattern to the recent 21-year period, but there has not been a mid-month rally. Early June strength has been notably stronger for NASDAQ and Russell 2000 while DJIA and S&P 500 have typically struggled throughout past post-election year Junes. 

 

 

June is the second worst DJIA month in post-election years, averaging a 1.0% loss with a record of fourteen full month declines in eighteen years. For S&P 500, June is #9 with an average loss of 0.5% (7-11 record). Post-election year June ranks #8 for NASDAQ and #7 for Russell 2000 with average gains of 0.8% and 1.2% respectively.

 

The second Quad Witching Week of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. On Monday of Quad-Witching Week, DJIA has been down 15 of the last 28 years. Quad-Witching Friday is similar, DJIA has been up 18 of the last 35 years, but down 8 of the last 10. Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after June’s Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 29 of the last 35 years with an average weekly decline of 0.8% since 1990. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 had fared better during the week after, but that trend appears to be fading.

 

 

June’s first trading day is the Dow’s best day of the month, up 28 of the last 37 years. Gains are sparse throughout the remainder of the month until the last three days when NASDAQ and Russell 2000 stocks begin to exhibit strength. The last day of the second quarter was a bit of a paradox as the Dow was down 17 of 24 from 1991 through 2014 while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 had nearly the opposite record. Since 2015, all indexes have had a bullish bias on the last trading day while DJIA and S&P 500 have been up 8 of the last 10.