ETF Portfolios & NAS MACD: New Int’l Trades & Consolidation Underway By: Christopher Mistal | June 05, 2025 | Email | Print

In case you missed the member’s only webinar on Wednesday, June 5, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). In the webinar Jeff reviewed key seasonal pattern charts that we have been tracking throughout the year, current GDP and inflation trends, Fed interest rate expectations, and the status of NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator which has NOT triggered yet. More detail on the current status of the signal is below.

 

In addition, Jeff also reviewed the history of the S&P 500 following a strong May performance (>3% advance in May). S&P 500’s 6.2% advance this May was indeed impressive, coming in at second best May gain going back to 1950. Only May 1990 was better when S&P 500 jumped 9.2%. But the solid gains in May do suggest the market could spend time in June trading flat or sideways as it consolidates the recent gains.

 

 

As of today’s close, NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator is negative. It turned negative on May 30. The criteria we use to issue our NASDAQ Seasonal MACD sell is a new negative crossover of MACD (using 12-26-9 parameters) on or after the first trading day in June. Because NASDAQ’s MACD indicator was negative at the start of June, it will need to turn positive first. It would take a single day advance exceeding 377.18 NASDAQ points (1.95%) to turn MACD positive. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD turns negative we will send an email to all active members. At that time, we will finish repositioning our Portfolios for the “Worst Months.” We do anticipate adding to some existing bond ETFs and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio.

 

 

Although we normally do not focus on non-U.S. markets, it has become increasingly difficult to ignore the outsized gains many international ETFs have enjoyed this year. Tariff uncertainty, a weaker U.S. dollar, more favorable monetary policy are some of the likely drivers boosting international markets. Here are four new trade ideas to consider if you are seeking international exposure.

 

iShares International Select Dividend (IDV) can be considered on dips below $34.00. IDV holds high-quality international companies that have generally provided consistent, high dividend yields over time. It has over $5 billion in assets and has traded nearly 800,000 shares per day on average over the last 30 days. Its 30-day SEC yield as of April 30, 2025, is a solid 5.71%. Its expense ratio is so-so at 0.49%. Top five holdings are: British American Tobacco, TotalEnergies, Enel, BHP Group, and National Grid.

 

 

iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor (EFAV) can be considered on dips below $83.70. EFAV holds developed market equities outside of the U.S. and Canada that have lower volatility characteristics relative to broader markets. It also has over $5 billion in assets and has traded over 500,000 shares on average over the last 30 days. Its expense ratio is reasonable at 0.20% and it has a 30-day SEC yield of 2.66%. Top five holdings are: Swisscom, Zurich Insurance Group, Novartis, Ahold Delhaize, and Orange.

 

 

iShares MSCI EAFE Value (EFV) can be considered on dips below $63.50. As its name implies, EFV is a value focused ETF that holds developed market equities outside of the U.S. and Canada. EFV has over $25 billion in assets and its shares typically change hands millions of times in a given trading day. Its expense ratio is ok at 0.33% while its 30-day SEC yield is respectable at 3.48%. Top five holdings are: Roche Holding, HSBC Holdings, Shell, Nestle, and Toyota.

 

 

iShares MSCI Eurozone (EZU) can be considered on dips below $58.80. EZU provides exposure to developed market countries that use the Euro. The equities it holds are mid- and large caps. Its expense ratio is 0.51% and its 30-day SEC yield is a modest 2.08%. EZU has nearly $8 billion in assets and trades millions of shares per day. Top five holdings are: SAP, ASML, Siemens, Allianz, and LVMH.

 

 

 

There are two new Sector Seasonalities that begin in June, a bearish period for natural gas stocks that is based upon the NYSE ARCA Natural Gas index (XNG) and a similarly bearish seasonality in oil stocks based upon NYSE ARCA Oil index (XOI). We are going to pass on both trade setups. Natural gas prices have been kept in check by domestic inventories that are within the 5-year average for this time of the year due to a mild winter and adequate supply. While natural gas prices could drift lower, the risk of a spike higher during hurricane season due to supply disruptions outweighs any potential reward of a short position. Geopolitical instability and crude oil’s price resiliency make shorting that sector unattractive.

 

 

Three bullish and one bearish Sector Seasonalities come to an end in June. Starting at the top of the table on the bottom of page 94 in the 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac, the bullish trade based upon XNG comes first. Our correlating ETF position, presented on February 6, First Trust Natural Gas (FCG), was stopped out in early April. FCG has rebounded modestly since then but is lagging the broader market and could easily remain range bound. 

 

The next seasonality to end is a bearish period for gold and silver stocks based upon the Gold and Silver index (XAU). The correlating short trade using VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) was added to the portfolio on May 2, and was stopped out on June 2 for a loss. Gold could be topping out having stalled out just under $3500 per ounce but it has also not retreated.

 

Lastly, bullish seasonalities associated with Consumer Discretionary and Staples come to an end in June. The position in SPDR Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was stopped out in early March for a 6.2% gain. SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) can be considered on dips below $81.74. XLP has a history of performing during the “Worst Months,” May through October.

 

Positions in other sectors that have historically performed well during the “Worst Months,” XLU and IBIT can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits.

 

Last month’s other two short trades were a bust. SPDR S&P Regional Banking (KRE) was shorted on May 5 and stopped out on May 12 while SPDR Materials (XLB) was shorted on May 2 and stopped out on May 16. KRE has weakened while XLB has continued to climb modestly higher.

 

FXE, FXF, and FXY can also still be considered on dips. The U.S. dollar index has been in decline since mid-January. Its failed attempt to reclaim its key 100 level in May suggests the downtrend is still intact. As the U.S. dollar weakens, FXE, FXF, and FXY are likely to benefit.

 

 

 

Continue to Hold QQQ and IWM. NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD Sell Signal has NOT triggered.

 

Defensive positions in bond ETFs, TLT, AGG, BND, SHV and SGOV, are flat to modestly negative. TLT, AGG and BND are on Hold. The performance of TLT, AGG and BND will likely depend greatly upon the timing of Fed rate cuts, which is not likely until later this year. Our preferred bond ETFs are SHV and SGOV as both exhibit relatively stable pricing and have yields exceeding 4%. We will consider adding to SHV and SGOV positions when NASDAQ’s Seasonal Sell signal triggers, but they can be considered at current levels up to their respective buy limits.