NASDAQ MACD & Stock Portfolio Updates: NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally By: Christopher Mistal | June 12, 2025 | Email | Print

Even after modest declines on June 11, the major indexes are still on track for above average post-election-year June gains. Historically, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have outperformed in June and this year that tradition appears to be holding up once again. The biggest winner so far this June has been the small-cap Russell 2000, up nearly 4% as of the close on June 11. NASDAQ is second best with a solid 2.6% advance. DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 were up 1.4% to 1.9%.

 

 

With mid-June approaching, and positive momentum beginning to show signs of waning, the market could be headed toward a brief bout of weakness as indicated in the above chart. However, any weakness, particularly from NASDAQ, could be an excellent setup ahead of its typical midyear rally.

 

 

Tech’s influence in the market continues to grow and the market’s focus in early summer often shifts to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. In anticipation of positive results, over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-trading-day run has been up 31 of the past 40 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. Look for this rally to begin around June 26 and run until about July 14.

 

 

After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last fifteen years, up thirteen times with two losses. After struggling during the bear market in 2022, NASDAQ resoundingly snapped back the past two years recording gains of 4.1% and 3.8% in 2023 and 2024 respectively during its 12-day midyear rally.

 

 

As of today’s close, NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator is still modestly negative. It has been negative since May 30. The criteria we use to issue our NASDAQ Seasonal MACD sell is a new negative crossover of MACD (using 12-26-9 parameters) on or after the first trading day in June. Because NASDAQ’s MACD indicator was negative at the start of June, it still needs to turn positive first. It would take a single-day advance of 305.79 NASDAQ points (+1.56%) to turn MACD positive. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM.

 

 

The optimal situation would be for NASDAQ to continue to track its typical post-election year June seasonal pattern, realize its typical midyear rally, and then have a MACD crossover. When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD turns negative we will send an email to all active members. At that time, we will finish repositioning our Portfolios for the “Worst Months.” We do anticipate adding to some existing bond ETFs and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio at that time.

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on June 11, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio advanced just 0.1%, excluding dividends, compared to a 2.2% advance by S&P 500 and a 3.1% gain by Russell 2000. Overall performance was limited by the sizable cash balance in the portfolio. Ignoring the cash balance, Large Caps were the only advancing group on average, up 3.9%. Mid-Caps as a group retreated 0.5% while the lone small-cap stock slide 8.3%.

 

AT&T (T) is on Hold. For being an old, boring telecom company, T is up an impressive 27.4% year-to-date as of its June 11 close. T is also bullishly trading less than 3% below its early April 52-week high, but a breakout may not be in the cards until the Fed cuts interest rates, and/or the 10-year Treasury bond yield moves decisively lower.

 

Emcor Group (EME) is on Hold. Shares of EME have slipped modestly since the first week of June but remain higher than they were four weeks ago. EME has benefited from the rapid AI buildout, and it also appears to be much more diversified in the engineering and construction spaces. Likely rising material costs and a potential slowing of AI-related spending are near-term headwinds to the company. Given the company’s track record, we suspect they will eventually overcome the headwinds.

 

ICICI Bank (IBN) is on Hold. Over the past four weeks IBN is effectively unchanged. This is actually somewhat encouraging as the truce between India and Pakistan following brief conflict in April has been shaky. Tensions between the two likely need to ease further before investors and traders are willing to consider additional purchases.

 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is on hold. As interest in AI resumes, it would appear confidence in SMCI may be returning as well. After jumping higher in mid-May, SMCI did briefly pullback to under $40 per share but did not close below that level. It would be encouraging to see this support level hold and for share volatility to decline further. 

 

OSI Systems (OSIS) is on hold. After a period of consolidation, OSIS did break out to additional new all-time highs yesterday, June 11. At the close, it was up 62.3% since being added to the portfolio last October. Should the broader market take pause, OSIS could also take a breather.

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) can still be considered on dips below its buy limit of $1. Shares have been relatively quiet since HWAIF completed their acquisition of Orion Health however, management appears to be moving quickly to take advantage of the new markets the deal provided access to. The biggest being the U.S., where HWAIF just released a new suite of AI enabled tools that are intended to complement Orion’s existing offerings. Additional patience will likely be needed, but HWAIF does appear on course for a positive future.

 

All other positions in the portfolio are on Hold. Please note some stop losses have been updated to account for recent market moves.