July Almanac & Stats: Top DJIA And S&P 500 Month of Post-Election Years By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal | June 19, 2025 | Email | Print

 

As of the close on June 18, NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator was still negative. It has been negative since May 30. The criteria we use to issue our NASDAQ Seasonal MACD sell is a new negative crossover of MACD (using 12-26-9 parameters) on or after the first trading day in June. Because NASDAQ’s MACD indicator was negative at the start of June, it still needs to turn positive first. It would take a single-day advance of 880.42 NASDAQ points (+4.50%) to turn MACD positive. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD registers a new negative crossover we will send an email to all active members. At that time, we will finish repositioning our Portfolios for the “Worst Months.” We do anticipate adding to existing bond ETF and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio.

 

 

July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter, however historically tepid August and September tend to make the comparison easy. “Hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% combined with strong performances in 2013, 2018, and 2022, have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 1000 have been up ten straight Julys (2015-2024). NASDAQ declined 0.8% in July 2024, ending its streak of July gains at nine in a row. Russell 2000 has been up eight times in the same period (down in 2015 and 2021). Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 76, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2025).

 

July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months but is also the seventh best performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.9% average gain. Dynamic trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year tends to bring an inflow of new capital. This creates a bullish beginning, middle, and a mixed/flat second half. On average, over the last 21 years, nearly all of July’s gains have occurred in the first 13 trading days. Once a bullish day, the last trading day of July has had a bearish bias over the last 21 years. In post-election years since 1950, July has exhibited a similar pattern to the recent 21-year period.

 

 

July’s first trading day is the third best performing first trading day of all twelve months with DJIA gaining a cumulative 1729.68 points since 1998. Over the past 21 years, DJIA’s first trading day of July has produced gains 81.0% of the time with an average advance of 0.35%. S&P 500 has advanced 90.5% of the time (average gain 0.44%). NASDAQ has been similarly bullish advancing 85.7% of the time (0.50% average gain). No other day of the year exhibits this amount of across-the-board strength, which supports the case for declaring the first trading day of July the most consistently bullish day of the year over the past 21 years. Although, the third-from-last day of August is rising to challenge this title.

 

Trading on the day before and after the Independence Day holiday is often lackluster. Volume tends to decline on either side of the holiday as vacations begin early and/or finish late. Since 1980, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have recorded net losses on the day after (page 102, STA 2025).

 

 

Post-election-year July rankings are stellar, ranking #1 for DJIA and S&P 500, averaging gains of 2.1% and 2.2% respectively (since 1950). For NASDAQ (since 1971) post-election-year Julys rank #2 with an average gain of 3.2%. July ranks #3 in post-election years for Russell 1000 and 2000 since 1979.