ETF Portfolios & NASDAQ MACD Update: Precious Metals & On Hold By: Christopher Mistal | July 03, 2025 | Email | Print

In case you missed the member’s only webinar on Wednesday, July 2, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). In the webinar Jeff reviewed key seasonal pattern charts that we have been tracking throughout the year, current GDP and inflation trends, Fed interest rate expectations, and the status of NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator which has NOT triggered yet. More detail on the current status of the signal is below.

 

In addition, Jeff also reviewed the history of the S&P 500 following a positive Q2 after a negative Q1. The historical results were somewhat mixed but potentially more encouraging was when S&P 500 gained 10% or more in Q2 after a down Q1 like it did this year. In the past five occurrences (1968, 1980, 2003, 2009, 2020), since 1950, S&P 500 always advanced in Q3, Q4, the second half of the year, and the full year. The data and tables can be viewed on slide 6 of the webinar’s deck.

 

Due to lingering tariff uncertainty, mixed economic data, and geopolitical concerns, our 2025 Forecast odds are still 50/50 between our Base and Worst case scenarios. Should the current rally and breakout to new highs by S&P 500 and NASDAQ pull DJIA to new record highs and fundamentals show some modest improvement, the odds of our Base case scenario playing out would likely improve. Until then, continue to ride the midyear rally, likely until around mid-July, and then remain on the lookout for a possible pullback sometime in typically weak August and September.

 

 

As of the close today, July 3, NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator was positive. The criteria we use to issue our NASDAQ Seasonal MACD sell is a new negative crossover of MACD (using 12-26-9 parameters) on or after the first trading day in June. It would currently take a one-trading-day NASDAQ decline of 564.81 points (–2.74%) for NASDAQ’s MACD indicator to turn negative. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD registers a new negative crossover, we will send an email to all active members. At that time, we will finish repositioning our Portfolios for the “Worst Months.” We do anticipate adding to existing bond ETF and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio and will also consider adding additional positions in the stock portfolio.

 

 

Three new sector seasonalities begin in the month of July. Bearish seasonalities for Industrials and Transports have historically begun around mid-July and lasted until the first two thirds of October. Technically, both sectors currently look strong with corresponding strength in iShares DJ Transports (IYT) and SPDR Industrials (XLI). At this time, we are going to pass on trading these bearish seasonalities. However, should they begin to falter, we may consider a trade then.

 

July’s final new seasonality is for gold & silver mining stocks. This seasonality is based upon strength in the Philadelphia Gold & Silver index that typically begins in late July and lasts until late December. Over the past 10 years this trade has struggled, but more recently in the last 5 years it has averaged 9.99%. With ballooning Federal debt and deficits, a weakening U.S. dollar, and Fed interest rate cuts still on the table for later this year, gold, silver and the stocks that mine and produce them could easily extend their recent bullish streaks. We will take a two-pronged approach by considering the miners and the metals.

 

VanEck Gold Miners (GDX) is our preferred ETF to take advantage of seasonal strength in gold and silver miners. As of the close on July 2, GDX had over $15 billion in assets with a gross expense ratio of 0.51%. Top five holdings of GDX include: Newmont, Agnico Eagle Mines, Wheaton Precious Metals, Barrick Gold, and Franco-Nevada.

 

 

Year-to-date, GDX is up over 50%. It appears to have spent the last month consolidating those gains. GDX was modestly higher today and its Stochastic, relative strength and MACD indicators are improving and trending in positive directions. GDX can be considered on dips below $52.50. If purchased, set an initial stop loss at $46.33 and an auto sell at $62.85.

 

 

Next, we will also look to establish a position in SPDR Gold (GLD). Unlike the miners, physical gold was lower today. Since surging to new all-time highs in mid-April, GLD has also been consolidating. Stochastic, relative strength, and MACD indicators were set back today but still appear to be trending favorably higher, suggesting some new attention as tariff deadlines loom. GLD can be considered on dips below $307.10. If purchased, consider a stop loss at $275.00. There is no auto-sell price at this time.

 

 

VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) is the small-cap version of GDX. The holdings of GDXJ are generally smaller market cap and early-stage miners. GDXJ has over $5.5 billion in assets and an expense ratio of 0.51%. Top five holdings are: Alamos Gold, Pan American Silver, Harmony Gold Mining, B2gold, and Evolution Mining. GDXJ can be considered on dips below a buy limit of $68.20. If purchased, set an initial stop loss at $60.19 and an auto sell at $81.64.

 

 

Lastly, we will consider a position in iShares Silver (SLV). Unlike its “big brother” gold, silver has not traded at a new all-time high and is trading near a historical discount to gold. SLV did post a solid gain in June, and its technical indicators have softened since momentum eased, but early signs of improvement exist with Stochastic and relative strength improving recently. SLV can be considered on dips below a buy limit of $32.50. If purchased a stop loss at $29.70 is suggested.

 

 

Five sector seasonalities come to an end in July but there are no associated positions currently held in the Sector Rotation ETF portfolio. A complete rundown can be found on page 94 of the 2025 Stock Trader’s Almanac and a quick list is available at the top of the July 2025 Strategy Calendar.

 

“Worst Months” defensive positions in SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) and SPDR Utilities (XLU) can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits. XLP and XLU have respectable track records for providing modest average gains from May through October along with a fair dividend yield.

 

 

FXE, FXF, and FXY can also still be considered on dips. Aside from a few failed rally attempts, the U.S. dollar index has been in retreat since mid-January. Support around 100 has been broken. Tariff uncertainty and mixed fundamental data are likely responsible for its decline. As the U.S. dollar weakens, FXE, FXF, and FXY are likely to continue to benefit.

 

Invesco DB Agriculture (DBA) is another weak(er) U.S. dollar trade. As the U.S. dollar weakens, it can make U.S. agricultural products more affordable to foreign buyers which in turn can result in higher demand and potentially higher prices. DBA was added to the portfolio on June 10 and can still be considered on dips below its buy limit.

 

As noted in this week’s member’s webinar, we are going to cancel the trade in iShares Bitcoin (IBIT). Unfortunately, we missed its race back to all-time highs and now Bitcoin’s momentum appears to be fading. We will await a better opportunity to trade IBIT later this year, likely in September or October.

 

All four of last month’s new foreign market-based ETFs have been added to the portfolio. IDV, EFAV, EFV, and EZU are all fractionally higher and can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits. Again again, tariffs and US market volatility were the driving factors for seeking out foreign market exposure.

 

 

 

Continue to Hold QQQ and IWM. NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD Sell Signal has NOT triggered.

 

Defensive positions in bond ETFs, TLT, AGG, BND, SHV and SGOV, are still flat to modestly negative. TLT, AGG and BND are on Hold. The performance of TLT, AGG and BND will likely depend greatly upon the timing of Fed rate cuts, which is not likely until later this year. Our preferred bond ETFs are SHV and SGOV as both exhibit relatively stable pricing and have yields exceeding 4%. We will consider adding to SHV and SGOV positions when NASDAQ’s Seasonal Sell signal triggers, but they can be considered at current levels up to their respective buy limits.