NASDAQ MACD & Stock Portfolio Updates: Ride the Rally By: Christopher Mistal | July 10, 2025 | Email | Print

 

As of the close today, July 10, NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD indicator was positive. The criteria we use to issue our NASDAQ Seasonal MACD sell is a new negative crossover of MACD (using 12-26-9 parameters) on or after the first trading day in June. It would currently take a one-trading-day NASDAQ decline of 111.73 points (–0.54%) for NASDAQ’s MACD indicator to turn negative. Continue to hold associated positions in QQQ and IWM.

 

 

When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD turns negative we will send an email to all active members. At that time, we will finish repositioning our Portfolios for the “Worst Months.” We do anticipate adding to some existing bond ETFs and cash holdings in the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy portfolio at that time.

 

 

With the home stretch of NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally quickly approaching, it has already exceeded its typical average gain of 2.5% since 1985, up 3.3% as of today’s close. Officially the rally ends on the 9th trading day of the month, July 14, this year. However, the recent 21-year seasonal pattern suggests it could run a bit longer until around monthly options expiration on July 18.

 

 

It is the latter days of July where the market can and historically has run into some weakness. This year we have been hearing a fair amount of discussion about a mid-July market peak followed by the elevated potential for a market retreat sometime during August, September, and perhaps into early October. To gain a better perspective on the potential magnitude of a summer market retreat we compiled two sets of data. In the following chart we present the average historical declines for DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ. 

 

 

Using each indexes respective July high close to its subsequent low close anytime during August, September, or October we found that DJIA and S&P 500 declined an average of 7.9%. NASDAQ declined a larger 10.7% on average. Of the 75 years of data examined for DJIA and S&P 500, there were 18 years each where the decline exceeded 10%. DJIA had two years (1950 & 1984) that did not have any decline while S&P 500 had three years (1950, 1958, & 1984). In 54 years, NASDAQ had 22 declines in excess of 10% and zero years without a decline.

 

Next, we looked for the maximum drawdown during the months July through October. Sometimes the drawdown did begin in July, but it could also begin in August, September or even October. Maximum drawdowns were larger on average with DJIA and S&P 500 declining 9.4% while NASDAQ declined 12.6%. Drawdowns exceeding 10% occurred in 23 years for DJIA, 25 for S&P 500 and 26 for NASDAQ. The average start date of the drawdowns was between August 8 to August 13 with NASDAQ being first and S&P 500 last. The drawdown typically lasted until around September 23 or 24.

 

The market still has some room to run ahead of this historically weak period. When NASDAQ’s Seasonal MACD turns negative, we will review market conditions and make any necessary adjustments in the portfolios.

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on July 9, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio advanced just 0.3%, excluding dividends, compared to a 4.0% advance by S&P 500 and a 4.9% gain by Russell 2000. Overall performance is still limited by the sizable cash balance in the portfolio. However, each market-cap slice of the portfolio was positive reflecting the broad strength exhibited by the market. Our Large Caps were the best advancing 2.5%, followed by the lone Small Cap which gained 2.0%. Lastly, Mid-Caps advanced an average of 0.4%.

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) can still be considered on dips below its buy limit of $1. When first presented back on December 12, 2024, HWAIF was a highly speculative trade and it remains so today. Management has made some solid progress by closing deals and expanding their market. HWAIF did enjoy a brief rally in late June that fizzled out in early July. We suspect that rally may have been a preview of what is likely to transpire as HWAIF continues its work toward profitability.

 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is on Hold. With Nvidia reaching new all-time highs and becoming the first company to exceed a $4 trillion market cap, SMCI has climbed back above $50 per share. Demand appears to be rising for SMCI’s products as it plans to expand production in Europe and in Asia. SMCI does have close ties with Nvidia, but it also has a storied history. We have taken profits twice, fully recovering the initial investment and more. Taking this into consideration, we are willing to wait and see if SMCI’s relationship with Nvidia can push it back toward all-time highs.

 

Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD) is on Hold. Shares of SKWD have been in retreat since topping $65 in early June. Quarterly results released in May were better than expected, which triggered numerous analysts to bump up their price targets. As long as shares can hold support around their stop loss of $50.65, we suspect that SKWD may beat estimates again when it releases its next earnings report in August.

 

Emcor Group (EME) is on Hold. After briefly pausing during late-May into early June, shares of EME closed out June with a decisive move higher that culminated with new 52-week and all-time highs earlier this week. EME appears to be consolidating those gains now. Earnings are anticipated later this month and could serve as the next catalyst to continue higher.

 

All other positions in the portfolio are on Hold. Please note some stop losses have been updated to account for recent market moves.