Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, August 2025 Outlook & Update on Wednesday July 30, 2025, at 4:00 PM EDT here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for August 2025, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the economy, tariffs, Fed, inflation, geopolitical events as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
7/24/2025: Dow 44693.91 | S&P 6363.35 | NASDAQ 21057.96 | Russell 2K 2252.13 | NYSE 20853.42 | Value Line Arith 11673.05
Seasonal: Bearish. August is the worst DJIA and Russell 2000 and second worst S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000 month over the last 37 years, 1988-2024 with average performance ranging from +0.1% by NASDAQ to a –0.8% loss by DJIA. In post-election years, Augusts’ rankings are little changed, but performance has been negative. Average declines in post-election year Augusts range from –0.5% by Russell 2000 to –1.5% by DJIA. Each index has also seen more declining post-election year Augusts than positive.
Fundamental: Mixed. The ultimate impact of tariffs on inflation is still unclear but most recent inflation metrics have ticked higher and are still above the Fed’s stated 2% target. Q2 GDP is expected to rebound after a negative Q1. Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model’s forecast for Q2 GDP has retreated to just 2.4% as of its July 18 update suggesting the rebound may not be as strong. Employment data is fair with the unemployment rate edging down to 4.1% and 147,000 net new jobs added in June. Tariff deals are getting made but deals with major trading partners like the E.U. and Canada have not been reached yet.
Technical: Breaking Out. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have logged multiple new all-time highs, DJIA has not. Technical indicators are getting stretched and the market could be due for a period of consolidation or a modest pullback. If DJIA makes a decisive move higher and joins the others at new all-time highs, its momentum could keep the rally going, but the clock is running.
Monetary: 4.25 – 4.50%. The Fed meets next week and is widely expected to announce no change to its key rate on Wednesday, July 30. Political pressure is mounting along-side calls to investigate the Fed’s $2.5 billion renovation project at its headquarters in Washington. Outside this D.C. drama, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool currently shows only a 60.4% chance of a rate cut in September.
Sentiment: Neutral. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 51.9%. Correction advisors are at 25.9% and Bearish advisors were at 22.2% as of their July 23 release. Bullish sentiment did ease in this report from 54.7% in the prior release. Current readings suggest there is some upside potential remaining in the market however, it is likely to be far less than the magnitude of gains over the past month.