Stock Portfolio Updates: More Volatility Likely By: Christopher Mistal | August 07, 2025 | Email | Print

Typical seasonal weakness and associated volatility have arrived right on cue. Blame tariff uncertainty, the weak jobs report last Friday, geopolitics, elevated valuations, or whatever. There has been no lack of chatter about historically weak August and September this year and it seems that it may become self-fulfilling. After sinking on the first trading day of August, the market has rebounded but the bullish momentum it has exhibited since the April lows has faded.

 

 

Whether looking at the recent 21-year seasonal pattern, post-election years since 1950, or the above 35-year pattern, August has just been a meager month with a weak trend. The market’s rebound earlier this week is consistent with past post-election year early month strength, but it will likely struggle to produce and maintain across-the-board new all-time index highs. Based upon historical August patterns, more volatility is likely the path of least resistance for the market. And even if the market does shrug off historically weak August, even weaker September looms.

 

However, we still expect only a modest market pullback in the near-term of around 5-8%. Tariff deals are being ironed out or exemptions are being put in place to smooth over the most potentially painful ones. Tax cuts and deregulation are also likely to limit any market retreat while inflation is reasonably subdued and Fed interest rate cut probabilities are rising.

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on August 6, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio was essentially unchanged, off – 0.01%, excluding dividends and any potential interest on the cash position, compared to a 1.3% advance by S&P 500 and a 1.4% decline from Russell 2000. Across the portfolio, the single small-cap stock was unchanged, mid-caps slipped 1.9% lower, while large-caps advanced 2.0% on average.

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) can still be considered on dips below its buy limit of $1. Shares of HWAIF have settled into a relatively wide trading range centered approximately around its current price of $1.02. We suspect management is taking a cautious approach by placing more emphasis on the healthcare aspects of its business rather than its use and development of AI. With the broader healthcare sector struggling, it’s not all that surprising to see HWAIF in a rut as well. If its second quarter earnings do not disappoint on August 13, the upper bounds of the range could be broken.

 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) can be considered near current levels with a buy limit of $47.00. Nvidia’s recent resurgence did translate into a respectable move higher by SMCI. However, SMCI failed to meet expectations earlier this week, missing both revenue and earnings estimates in its fiscal Q4. Management’s guidance was also somewhat disappointing as it forecast below expectation revenue and earnings numbers for the current quarter, but above expectations revenue for full fiscal year 2026. SMCI was down nearly 20% on the day. It appears more volatility is likely in the near-term for SMCI, but its longer-term prospects appear to be more favorable.

 

Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) is on hold. LOPE reported better than expected Q2 revenue and earnings just after the market close on August 6. Shares responded nicely today briefly topping $200.00, but broader market weakness appears to be weighing on today’s gains.

 

Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD) was stopped out on July 31 for just a 4% gain when it closed below $50.65. SKWD did modestly beat earnings expectations, but revenues were less than forecast. SKWD is still trading below its stop price and appears to still be searching for a bottom. 

 

Emcor Group (EME) is on Hold. Ahead of its earnings release, EME did enjoy a brisk rally to new 52-week highs and all-time highs. Earnings did not disappoint, but it does appear they were an opportunity to lock in some profits as EME has since retreated. Broad market chop is likely also contributing to some of EME’s modest pullback. 

 

All other positions in the portfolio are on Hold. Please note some stop losses have been updated to account for recent market moves.