In September and October, Jeff will be busy with presentations and events on both coasts. If you happen to be in the area or nearby, here is an opportunity to meet Jeff in person.
Friday, September 5th, 2025
Golden Gate University, San Francisco, CA
September 7-10, Huntington Beach, CA
Stop by and see me at the Wiley booth and check out the hot-off-the-press 2026 Almanac!
5,000+ attendees. Two iconic bands.
Future Proof Festival is where the wealth management community comes together - alongside live performances from Bush and Blues Traveler, plus content from 100+ speakers, 80% of whom are C-level leaders.
- 50,000+ Breakthru Meetings
- Immersive brand activations
- 98 Breakthru Experiences
- A four-day outdoor experience built for connection and momentum
October 16-18, Orlando, FL
Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate
Meet Jeff in Orlando at the 2025 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando where 100+ experts will join him to educate over 1,000 investors and traders. He will give you his personal important portfolio decisions for Q4 and 2026 midterm year ahead.
Here are the sessions he’ll be taking part in:
Friday, October 17, 2025, at 12:55 pm - 1:25 pm EDT
October: The Best Time to Buy Stocks
Saturday, October 18, 2025, at 11:15 am - 12:00 pm EDT
Riding the Q4 Wave: Timely Strategies for Profits in the Strongest Quarter of the Cycle
Saturday, October 18, 2025, at 1:45 pm - 2:30 pm EDT
10 Hot Sectors and Stocks for Your “Take Home” List Panel
Inflation Sticking Around
Fueled by the weaker than expected July employment report and a July CPI (consumer inflation index) reading that was essentially in line with expectations, S&P 500 has defied typical seasonal weakness, so far, in the first half of August and closed at multiple new all-time highs. At S&P 500’s high close today, August 14, it was up 9.98% year-to-date, exceeding every post-election year seasonal pattern we have been tracking this year at mid-August levels and full-year performance of all but our STA Aggregate Cycle.
However, today’s PPI (producer price index) report was not as sanguine, coming in with a 0.9% month-over-month increase compared to expectations of around 0.2%. Over the last 12 months, the index has increased 3.3%, well above the Fed’s stated 2% target. It would appear there are more price increases in the pipeline that are likely to show up, at some point, in consumer prices.
Above is a chart of the 6-month exponential moving average (EMA) of the monthly year-over-year change in CPI and PPI. If this chart looks familiar, it is. We have been using it in our annual forecasts over the years. We choose a 6-month EMA as it tends to work well at smoothing out monthly volatility in CPI and PPI while better capturing the underlying trend of each. The PPI used in this chart is not the same as the one making headlines today. The PPI Final Demand index only goes back to November 2009. The PPI we plotted has data available back to 1917 and saw a similarly large monthly increase.
Note the clear relationship between PPI and CPI in the chart. PPI generally leads CPI higher and lower with peaks and troughs usually occurring within a few months of each other. This relationship does persist back to 1917 as well, but we started in 1949 to create a reasonably sized chart with adequate resolution for the more recent timeframe. Focusing on the last couple of years of data, PPI bottomed in February 2024 and has been trending higher while CPI has continued its trend modestly lower. It seems reasonable that if PPI continues to climb, CPI will also do the same.
Surprisingly, expectations for a September Fed interest rate cut are essentially unchanged as this is being written. According to the
CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds are 92.6% today versus 94.3% yesterday, August 13. It would seem nearly certain the Fed will be cutting its key interest rate in September or perhaps the market is overly optimistic. Afterall there will be another CPI (September 11) and PPI (September 10) release before the Fed’s next meeting along with the August employment situation (September 5) report. Potentially of even greater importance will be PCE (personal income and outlays) on August 29. If inflation fails to ease in any of these upcoming reports, the odds of a September cut are likely going to retreat.
In addition to inflation data that looks like it is turning and beginning to head in the wrong direction, economic growth also offers little support for a Fed interest rate cut in September. The
Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, is forecasting Q3 GDP of 2.5% as of its August 7 update. There is another update due on Friday, August 15 that could impact Fed rate cut expectations. Anything that reduces the likelihood of a cut in September could also result in a typical seasonal retreat by the market. Typical post-election year Q1 weakness began a few weeks later than usual in the second half of February. Perhaps Q3 weakness will also be tardy. Should this be the case, we still suspect it will be a mild pullback that will likely clear the path for a Q4 rally.