ETF Trades: All Eyes on Labor Market & Bitcoin’s Seasonal Low By: Christopher Mistal | September 04, 2025 | Email | Print

If you missed the member’s only webinar on Wednesday, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). In the webinar we reviewed key seasonal pattern charts that we have been tracking throughout the year, current GDP and inflation trends, Fed interest rate expectations, and what we anticipate during September and beyond. 

 

In the near term, we still cannot completely rule out the possibility of some market weakness and volatility. However, given the reasonably firm economic data thus far and the market’s resiliency, any pullback or retreat is still likely to brief and shallow, likely low to middle single digits. Afterwards, Fed interest rate cut expectations and AI fueled growth and spending are expected to propel the market to more new all-time highs in Q4.

 

 

Market expectations for a Fed interest rate cut later this month have risen to 99.4% according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool (as of September 4, 2025). Recent inflation metrics have ticked higher and remain above the Fed’s stated 2% target, but the real focus of the Fed appears to be on employment data. Today’s ADP National Employment Report signaled further softness as private payrolls increased by just 54,000 compared to consensus forecast for 75,000. Tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report for August from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely be even more closely watched. Any substantial deviation from the current estimate of around 75,000 new jobs could trigger further market volatility.

 

Historically, the market has been mixed with a bearish lean on employment report day in September over the last 21 years. Only S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have seen more positive days than negative while average performance is negative across the board ranging from –0.38% by NASDAQ to –0.20% from DJIA. NASDAQ has the weakest record of all. After enjoying gains in the majority of years from 2008 to 2017, losses have been most prevalent the last seven years since 2018. Last year, expectations were missed and all five indexes declined by over 1% with NASDAQ dropping 2.55%.

 

 

Barring a major miss, or even a negative jobs number, we still think the Fed will most likely remain on course for just a 0.25% interest rate cut at its upcoming September 16-17 meeting and perhaps another one 0.25% cut before year-end. The Fed has a track record of not taking aggressive action until clearly needed and despite recent labor market data softening, the economy does not appear to be heading into a recession or facing an imminent crisis.

 

 

No Sector Seasonalities from page 94 of the 2025 Almanac begin or end in September. However, back in 2023, Jeff Hirsch teamed up with Adrian Zdunczyk, CMT, Founder and CEO of THE BIRB NEST® (@Crypto_Birb) to create “The Seasonality of Bitcoin” report. The original report is available here or by copying and pasting this link into a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/UploadedDocument/Seasonality _of_Cryptocurrency_Report.pdf. In the report Bitcoin demonstrated a seasonal tendency to bottom or hit a low in September followed by a solid rally into yearend. This was certainly the situation last year when Bitcoin hit an early September low just above $50,000 prior to taking off and racing above $100,000 by mid-December. Bitcoin’s recent price action appears to be setting up for a potentially similar September low.

 

 

The above chart is iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), our preferred ETF to trade the seasonal setup in Bitcoin. It is highly liquid, easily accessible and has relatively low fees. There are other ETFs available that also track Bitcoin, which are also perfectly fine options, but IBIT is the one we will use. We strongly encourage taking a moment and visiting www.ishares.com to review all relevant documents and information prior to executing any trade in IBIT.

 

After reaching an all-time high earlier in August, Bitcoin and IBIT have retreated back below their respective 50-day moving averages. Stochastic, relative strength and MACD are all currently negative but are beginning to hint at a possible turnaround. IBIT can be considered on dips below a buy limit of $61.40. This price appears to correlate to a Bitcoin price of around $108,000. If purchased, consider setting an initial stop loss at $58.15. This trade will be tracked in the Almanac Investor Sector Rotation ETF Portfolio.

 

 

The market’s resilience during its historically weak period has put modest pressure on defensive positions in the portfolio. SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) was down 1.4% as of the close on September 3 and SPDR Utilities (XLU) has also pulled back slightly but is still up 12.1% since being added to the portfolio back in March. XLP and XLU are on Hold.

 

Gold mining positions in VanEck Gold Miners (GDX) and VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) got off to a slow start but jumped higher as physical gold surged to new all-time highs. GDX and GDXJ both traded above their respective auto-sell prices during the past week and have been closed out of the portfolio for an average gain of 20.4%. If you have not closed out your positions in GDX and/or GDXJ, a trailing stop loss can also be considered to preserve gains. SPDR Gold (GLD) jumped to a gain of 7.2% and is on Hold. 

 

Currency ETFs, FXE and FXF are on Hold. After a respectable rally in July, the US dollar has been under renewed pressure which has lifted FXE and FXF. A Fed interest rate cut could further pressure the US dollar especially if longer term interest rates also begin to decline.

 

iShares Biotech (IBB), SPDR S&P Biotech (XBI) and iShares US Technology (IYW) have not been added to the portfolio yet as no meaningful dip or retreat materialized in August. IBB, XBI, and IYW can all still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits. If not added beforehand, we will likely consider adding them when the Seasonal MACD Buy signal triggers.

 

DBA, IDV, EFAV, EFV, and EZU can also still be considered on dips. These positions are a hedge against the possibility of a weaker US dollar and slowing US economic growth. Plus, they come with the added benefit of paying a reasonable dividend, with the exception of DBA.

 

 

 

Although the Fed is widely expected to cut rates later this month, it appears the bond market is not fully onboard yet. Longer dated Treasury bond yields have retreated modestly but not nearly as much as near-term yields. Shares of TLT, AGG and BND did move modestly higher today, but as of their respective closes on Wednesday, September 3, just BND was fractionally positive excluding dividends. Continue to Hold TLT, AGG, and BND.

 

After paying their respective dividends, short-term bond ETFs, SHV and SGOV were fractionally negative as of their September 3rd closes. SHV and SGOV are on Hold. We anticipate holding all bond ETFs until our Seasonal MACD Buy signal triggers. As of September 3, 2025, SHV and SGOV have 30-day SEC yields of 4.01% and 4.22% respectively.

 

As a reminder, the earliest our Seasonal MACD Buy signal can trigger is the first trading day of October (10/1/2025). The criteria to be satisfied is a new positive crossover on MACD (8-17-9) and DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ must all agree/confirm. If two are positive and one is not, the criteria are not satisfied. We expect to delve deeper into our Seasonal Buy Signal setup later this month.