October 2025 Almanac & Vital Stats: Usually Fair in Post-Election Years By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal | September 18, 2025 | Email | Print

Meet Jeff in Orlando at the 2025 MoneyShow/TradersEXPO Orlando where 100+ experts will join him to educate over 1,000 investors and traders. He will give you his personal important portfolio decisions for Q4 and the approaching political year ahead of 2026.

 

 

Join over 60+ exhibitors, 10 in-depth MoneyMasters classes, and get key economic, geopolitical, and financial market trends. You can choose from over 200 sessions and get actionable recommendations for your stock and bond portfolio. You will bring home great strategies for precious metals, real estate, options and trading skills to make you a more confident investor and trader. 

 

You won’t just LEARN a lot in Orlando, either. You’ll also have a GREAT TIME doing it! MoneyShow has several social activities and receptions planned for you – all of which will help you establish lasting, valuable connections with the experts and your fellow attendees. 

 

Here are the sessions Jeff will be taking part in at the October 16-18th event at the Omni Orlando Resort at ChampionsGate:

 

October has earned its reputation as a Bear-Killer, Bargain Month, and Turnaround Month. Despite its spooky history of crashes—what we call Octoberphobia—it’s also the launchpad for the market’s strongest stretch: the Best Six Months. Discovered by Yale Hirsch and published in the 1987 Stock Trader’s Almanac, this powerful seasonal pattern kicks off in late October, favoring tech stocks and small caps in particular. Join Jeff as he shows you how to capitalize on this proven seasonal trend with undervalued stock picks, tactical ETF plays, and his trusted MACD timing strategy to switch into offense just as Wall Street gets back on its heels. 

 

Discover how to capitalize on powerful seasonal trends, overlooked stocks, and top sector ETFs — just in time for the year’s most profitable stretch. Q4 is historically the strongest quarter of the post-election year — and October is the ideal time to position for gains. Join Jeff Hirsch as he walks you through how to take advantage of this seasonal sweet spot using his time-tested “Best Six Months” strategy, the MACD timing indicator, and smart screens to uncover undervalued, under-the-radar stocks and leading sector ETFs. You’ll also learn how the 4-Year Election Cycle, the AI tech surge, crypto, and commodities are shaping new opportunities — and how to position your portfolio for lower-risk, higher-reward outcomes in the months ahead. 

 

 

It's an incredible opportunity you won't want to miss. Which is why each year, hundreds of investors, traders, and financial professionals flock to MoneyShow events. Click here to download the event brochure with complete details. 

 

Then click here to register – or call MoneyShow’s customer service team at 1-800-970-4355 and mention priority code 065788. 

 

Jeff is looking forward to connecting with you in Orlando this October.

 

 

The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so keep this in mind as new all-time highs in September were historically followed by modestly softer performance in October when compared to all years. 

 

October can evoke fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point DJIA drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point DJIA drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, DJIA lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline, in percentage terms, in our database going back to 1901. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the largest DJIA weekly point decline.

 

However, October has been a turnaround month—a “bear killer” if you will, turning the tide in thirteen post-WWII bear markets: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2011 (S&P 500 declined 19.4%), and 2022. Only 1960 was an election year. While not in an official bear market this year, the possibility of some market weakness and headline induced volatility remains.

 

Over the last twenty-one years (2004-2024), the full month of October has been a fairly solid month for the market, ranking 4th best for DJIA, 5th for S&P 500 and Russell 1000, 6th for NASDAQ and 9th for Russell 2000. All have logged average gains ranging from 0.3% by Russell 2000 to 1.1% by DJIA and NASDAQ. But these gains have been accompanied by volatile trading, most notably during the early days of the month. 

 

 

October has historically opened softly with mixed performance on its first trading day. On the second day, all but Russell 2000 have been weak followed by a rebound on the third trading day before additional weakness pulled the market lower through the seventh or eighth trading day. At which point, the market has historically found support and begun to rally through mid-month and beyond. In post-election years since 1950, October has been stronger from the start with strength lasting until around the 15th or 16th trading days before weakening to close out the month.

 

 

Post-election year October’s are neither great nor bad since 1953, ranking mid-pack across DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 1000 with average gains ranging from 1.2% (DJIA) to 1.9% (NASDAQ). DJIA has the best historical odds for gains having advanced in 13 of the last 18 post-election year Octobers. Despite the best average gain, NASDAQ actually has the weakest record based upon frequency of advances, declining in 6 of the last 13 post-election year Octobers. A 12.8% gain in 2001 boosts its average. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for any depressed technology and small-cap shares.

 

Monthly options expiration week in October provides plenty of opportunity. On the Monday before monthly expiration DJIA has only been down 10 times since 1982 and the Russell 2000 is up twenty-six of the last thirty-five years, seventeen straight from 1990 to 2006. Expiration day has a mixed record while the week as a whole has been improving with S&P 500 up fifteen of the last seventeen with an average gain of 1.05%. Historically, after a market pullback in October, the week after monthly options expiration has been more bullish, otherwise it is susceptible to downdrafts.

 

 

October is also the end of the Dow and S&P 500 “Worst 6 Months” and NASDAQ “Worst 4 Months.” Remain attentive for our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal which can occur anytime beginning October 1 (the first trading day of the month this year). We will email all members after the market’s close when the seasonal buy triggers.