Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, October 2025 Outlook & Update on Wednesday October 1, 2025, at 4:00 PM EDT here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for October 2025 and beyond, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share our assessments of the economy, tariffs, Fed, inflation, geopolitical events as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
9/25/2025: Dow 45947.32 | S&P 6604.72 | NASDAQ 22384.70 | Russell 2K 2411.04 | NYSE 21336.99 | Value Line Arith 11920.57
Seasonal: Neutral. Octoberphobia can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. October is also the last month of the market’s “Worst Months.” Over the recent 21 years, October has been a reasonably solid month for the market, ranking 4th best for DJIA, 5th for S&P 500 and Russell 1000, 6th for NASDAQ and 9th for Russell 2000. In post-election years since 1950, October ranks mid-pack with average gains ranging from 1.2% (DJIA) to 1.9% (NASDAQ).
Fundamental: Mixed. Some inflation metrics appear to be trending higher and are still above the Fed’s stated 2% target while the most recent PPI reading was negative. Q2 GDP was revised higher to a 3.8% annualized pace today and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model’s forecast for Q3 GDP has climbed to 3.3% as of its September 17, 2025 estimate. However, employment data has softened with monthly job gains slowing to just +22000 in August following sizable downward revisions to previous months while the unemployment rate is still just 4.3%.
Technical: Consolidating. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and at long last Russell 2000 logged new all-time closing highs. After defying typical weak seasonality in August and most of September, the indexes appear to be pausing to consolidate gains. First support levels are likely around late August highs, DJIA 45650, S&P 500 6505, and NASDAQ 21720. Russell 2000 could endure a deeper pullback, with support around 2300.
Monetary: 4.00 – 4.25%. As widely expected, the Fed did cut 0.25% off its key lending rate at its September meeting. Expectations for future cuts are not as clear with some expecting just one more cut before the end of the year and others looking for two cuts. The Fed has repeatedly stated its “data dependence,” but economic data has not been all the clear recently. Growth measured by GDP appears to be improving, some inflation metrics have moved higher, while the labor market has softened. Absent a “crisis” to fight, the Fed does appear to be leaning toward fewer rate cuts than many would like or expect.
Sentiment: Caution. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 58.5%. Correction advisors are down to 24.5% and Bearish advisors were at 17.0% as of their September 24 release. With the spread between the number of bulls and bears expanding above 40, advisor sentiment is deep into the caution zone. Patience appears to be the best course of action for now. Should the market’s current consolidation result in the mild pullback we have not ruled out, sentiment will likely become more favorable.