Faster moving MACD “Buy” indicators applied to DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all positive as of today’s close. With all three indices confirming, we are issuing our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal.
After the tariff induced market selloff in April, the market has been resilient rallying straight through the worst two months of the year, August and September, and closing at new all-time highs repeatedly. This bullish action has pushed our outlook for the remainder of the year to our most bullish scenario from the 2025 Forecast. S&P 500 appears to be on course for 7100 by yearend and a full-year gain of around 20%. Economic growth appears to be picking up after GDP was negative in Q1. AI-driven spending and investment remain robust, and the Fed is on a path to additional interest rate cuts.
Headwinds do remain and headline volatility is still a concern. We are in the midst of a federal government shutdown. Inflation continues to be stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. Conflict is still ongoing in the Mideast and an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine still appears distant. Valuations are also stretched. Even so, the major indexes continue to climb to new all-time highs. Though never a certainty, we will stick with the system and begin establishing new long positions in the ETF portfolios.
Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF Portfolio Trades
Buy SPDR DJIA (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), Invesco QQQ (QQQ), and iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) in the Almanac Investor Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy Portfolio. These positions will be equally weighted in the portfolio. Buy limits for DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM are initially today’s closing price plus 1% (closing price times 1.01 = buy limit). For tracking purposes, these ETFs will be added to the portfolio using their respective average prices on Tuesday, October 7. This price will be calculated by summing the high and low prices and dividing by two.
Sell “Worst Months” partial positions in iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT), iShares Core US Aggregate Bond (AGG) and Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND). All three have pulled back from recent highs and are showing mixed performance as of today’s close (October 6). For tracking purposes, they will also be closed out of the portfolio on Tuesday, October 7, using their respective average daily prices.
Sell iShares Short Treasury Bond (SHV) and iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond (SGOV). For tracking purposes, they will also be closed out of the portfolio on Tuesday, October 7, using their respective average daily prices.
Sector Rotation ETF Portfolio
Buy new long positions in IBB, IYW, IBIT, IYT, IYZ, SOXX, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLK, and VNQ. Use a new 1% Buy Limit based upon today’s closing price for these positions as detailed above. For tracking purposes, these ETFs will be added to the portfolio using their respective average prices also on October 7. Once these positions are added to the portfolio, we will update their respective stop loss and auto-sell prices.
Disclosure note: Officers of Hirsch Holdings Inc hold positions in DBA, EFAV, EFV, EZU, FXE, FXF, IDV, and XLP in personal accounts.