Stock & ETF Portfolio Updates: October New All-Time Highs Bullish By: Christopher Mistal | October 09, 2025 | Email | Print

Yesterday, October 8, S&P 500 and NASDAQ both closed at new all-time highs (ATH). For S&P 500 it was the fifth time this October while it was NASDAQ’s third time closing at a new ATH. Despite concerns about the length and gains of the market’s rally since its early April lows, new ATHs in October have historically been bullish in the near-term.

 

 

Including this year, S&P 500 has closed at one or more new ATHs 22 times in the month of October since 1950. In nine of the previous 21 occurrences, S&P 500 closed at a new ATH five or more times (year and performance in bold). Whether it was once, five times, or more average performance in Q4 improved compared to All Years and after five ATHs, Q4 was up 100% of the time with an average gain of 5.62%. In the near-term, data suggests fear of missing out, expectations for Fed interest rate cuts and then holiday cheer will likely keep the market’s bullish momentum alive and well through yearend.

 

 

In accordance with our Seasonal MACD Buy signal email Issue sent after the close on Monday, October 6, SPDR DJIA (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), Invesco QQQ (QQQ), and iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) have all been added to the portfolio using their respective average daily price from October 7. DIA, SPY, QQQ, and IWM can still be considered at current levels up to their buy limits. As of October 8, close, these four positions were up an average of 0.4% with QQQ performing the best.

 

“Worst Months” positions in iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT), iShares Core US Aggregate Bond (AGG) Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND), iShares Short Treasury Bond (SHV), and iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond (SGOV) were also closed out of the portfolio using their respective average prices on October 7. Excluding dividends and any trading fees, these five bond ETFs were essentially unchanged. AGG eked out a 1.5% price advance while TLT slipped 2.1%. Reasonably solid economic growth and inflation remaining above 2% are two likely reasons why TLT, AGG, and BND did not advance. However, SHV and SGOV did perform as expected. Their price remained relatively stable while paying a handsome monthly dividend, yielding 4.3% and higher over the past five months or so.

 

 

 

Also in accordance with our Seasonal MACD Buy signal, all eleven new ETF Trades from the October ETF basket have been added to the Sector Rotation portfolio using their respective average prices from October 7. Corresponding buy limits, stop losses, and auto-sell prices have been updated in the table below. IYT, IYZ, SOXX, XLY, XLP, XLF, XLV, XLI, XLB, XLK, and VNQ can still be considered on dips or at current levels. 

 

IBB, XBI, IYW, and IBIT were also added to the portfolio using their average price on October 7. IBB, XBI, IYW, and IBIT can still be considered at current levels or on dips below their buy limits.

 

For tracking purposes, the existing position in SPDR Consumer Staples (XLP) has been closed out. This position was held as a “Worst Months” defensive position. As a result of broad market strength during this year’s “Worst Months,” XLP declined 4.9%. 

 

SPDR Utilities (XLU) was also closed out of the portfolio on October 3 for a 19.0% gain when it first traded above its auto-sell price. Rising electricity prices driven by AI demand were a catalyst for XLU’s well above average gain this year.

 

The trade in iShares Silver (SLV) is cancelled. There could be additional upside potential available in SLV but with an existing position in SPDR Gold (GLD) that is also working well we have adequate precious metals exposure already.

 

 

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on October 8, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio was up 0.9%, excluding dividends and any potential interest on the cash position, compared to a 3.4% advance by S&P 500 and a 4.5% gain by Russell 2000. Across the portfolio, mid-cap positions were best on average, advancing 6.1% followed by small-caps, up 0.6%.

 

From the September Stock Basket, 13 of the 16 new trade ideas have been added to the portfolio. Ezcorp (EZPW), Rambus (RMBS), and Medpace Holdings (MEDP) have not traded below their buy limits and can still be considered on dips. Of the 13 that have been added, five were positive and eight were down as of the close on October 8.

 

Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) had a solid run ahead of and after its earnings release in August. Shares appear to be consolidating those gains now. Its core opioid market is mature and likely slowly shrinking, but its new management is shifting focus into the growing ADHD market with Jornay PM. COLL can be considered at current levels.

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) can still be considered on dips below its buy limit of $1. Shares have recently reawakened trading as high as $1.23 intraday in late September. Management recently announced the global launch of AmadeusAI. HWAIF is still a Ground Floor stock. Management is making progress, revenues are growing and it is profitable, but it still needs a U.S.-based exchange listing and broader “AI” awareness. If you are looking for a potentially undervalued AI company, HWAIF is worth a deeper look.

 

Hess Midstream (HESM) is the worst performing new trade idea, off 15.2%. HESM did close below its stop loss today, but we are not going to close this position out. HESM woes began shortly after it was added to the portfolio when it provided updated financial guidance. At first quick look it did seem negative, however, all they really did was move the goal post to the lower end of an existing range. The resultant selloff does appear to be overdone at this point. Shares closed at a new 52-week low today and volume has retreated, suggesting selling pressure could be abating. HESM can be considered at current levels with a stop loss at $31.97.

 

All other positions from the September Stock Basket can still be considered on dips or at current levels. Please note some stop losses and buy limits have been updated to account for recent market moves.