November 2025 Almanac: Best Month for DJIA & S&P 500 By: Jeffrey A. Hirsch & Christopher Mistal | October 16, 2025 | Email | Print

 

November begins the “Best Six Months” for the DJIA and S&P 500, and the “Best Eight Months” for NASDAQ. Small caps come into favor during November, but don’t really take off until the last two weeks of the year. November is the best month of the year for DJIA, S&P 500 (since 1950), Russell 1000 (since 1979), and Russell 2000 (since 1979). November is the second best for NASDAQ (since 1971). Average performance ranges from 1.9% by DJIA and S&P 500 to a solid 2.6% by Russell 2000.

 

November maintains its status among the top performing months as fourth-quarter cash inflows from institutions have historically driven November to lead the best consecutive three-month span November-January. However, the month has taken hits during bear markets and November 2000, down –22.9% (undecided election and a nascent bear), was NASDAQ’s second worst month on record—only October 1987 was worse.

 

 

In post-election years, November’s market prowess is essentially unchanged. DJIA has advanced in 14 of the last 18 post-election years since 1953 with an average gain of 1.6%. DJIA had been up 11-straight post-election year Novembers until 2021. Prior to that DJIA’s last losing post-election year November was all the way back in 1973 (-14.0%, Arab oil embargo began 10/19/1973). S&P 500 has been up 13 in the past 18 post-election years. Small caps perform well with Russell 2000 climbing in 8 of the past 11 post-election years, averaging 2.1%. The only real blemishes in the November post-election year record are 1969 (DJIA –5.1%), 1973 (DJIA –14.0%, OPEC oil embargo), and 2021 (DJIA –3.7%).

 

 

Monthly options expiration often coincides with the week before Thanksgiving as it does this year. DJIA posted ten straight gains 1993-2002 and has been up 21 of the last 32 weeks before Thanksgiving but has been down six of the last eight. The Monday of expiration week has been streaky, but the net result since 1994 is 19 DJIA gains in 31 years with 14 advances occurring in the last 21 years. Options expiration day has a bullish bias, DJIA up 16 of the last 23, but five of the declines have come in the last nine years. The week after expiration has been a mixed bag more recently. DJIA has been up nine of the last thirteen after being down five of six from 2006 to 2011.

 

 

Being a bullish month, November has twelve bullish days based upon S&P 500, with a string of six in a row starting on its first trading day. Although historically a bullish month, November does have weak points. DJIA and Russell 2000 have exhibited the greatest strength at the beginning and end of November. Russell 2000 is notably bearish on the 12th trading day of the month; the small-cap benchmark has risen just eleven times in the last 41 years (since 1984). The Russell 2000’s average decline is 0.41% on the day. Some recent weakness around Thanksgiving has shifted DJIA and S&P 500 strength to mirror that of NASDAQ and Russell 2000 with the majority of bullish days at the beginning and end of the month. The best way to trade Thanksgiving is to go long into any weakness before the holiday and exit into strength just before or after.