ETF Trades & Updates: “Best Months” Underway & Copper’s Rebound By: Christopher Mistal | October 30, 2025 | Email | Print

For those who were unable to attend the member’s only webinar on Wednesday, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). In addition to the seasonal pattern charts we have been tracking and presenting throughout the year, Jeff reviewed the numerous seasonal indicators and patterns that occur in November, December and carryover into January.

 

The Q4 rally we have been looking for is underway and S&P 500 is well on its way to 7100 (or possibly even a bit higher) by year end. Seasonality has become favorable and the Best 3 consecutive month span will begin next Monday. November is the best month of the year, and it begins this year with a streak of 6 straight bullish days that could extend the historically bullish Halloween trade an additional two days. We do not expect S&P 500 to be up on each and every day, but this cluster certainly highlights historical market strength at the beginning of the “Best 3/6/8 Months.”

 

Despite some weakness today triggered by apparently disappointing earnings from Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT), the AI-fueled Super Boom, that has driven the market higher in recent years, is highly likely to continue. Substantial investments in AI have been and are being made, and like or not, AI is likely here to stay. Investors may occasionally grow impatient waiting for a return on all the investment but they keep coming back. META’s earnings miss due to a one-time tax charge is likely a perfect example of the frustration however, when you look at their revenue numbers, investors and traders will likely return once again.

 

There has also been some progress with trade policy and tariffs. Granted much work remains to be done, but there does seem to be a general framework in place, and this does bring at least a small fraction of some much-needed stability. Plus, the Fed is also in an easing cycle. Regardless of the market’s initial response to Fed Chair Powell’s comments about another December rate cut, it really remains the Fed’s only course of action at its next meeting in December. In fact, if you look back at Fed action throughout history, lower rates (and then QE) have been their only real moves in response to a weaker labor market and/or slowing economic activity. Being “data-driven,” the Fed’s reluctance to commit to the next cut is understandable. Absent data due to the federal government shutdown, the odds for a December rate cut are likely much higher than the market currently thinks.

 

Speaking of the shutdown, it appears the situation is nearing a boiling point. From air traffic control to SNAP benefits, patience is wearing thin. We suspect things will begin to move once the results start coming out following Election Day next week. The reopening of the federal government could be the next catalyst for the Q4 rally to begin its next leg higher.

 

Copper’s Bullish Seasonality 

 

Copper tends to make a major seasonal bottom in November/December and then tends to post major seasonal peaks in April or May. This pattern could be due to the buildup of inventories by miners and manufacturers as the construction season begins in late winter to early spring. Auto makers are also preparing for the new car model year that often begins in mid- to late summer. After getting hit by a 50% tariff at the end of July, copper has rebounded and appears to be beginning its historically favorable season early this year. 

 

Futures traders can consider going long a May 2026 futures contract on or about December 12 and hold until around late February. In this trade’s 53-year history, it has worked 35 times for a success rate of 66.0%. The average gain in all years is 5.4%. After four straight years of declines from 2012 to 2015, this trade has been successful in seven of the last nine years with respectable theoretical gains based upon trading a single contract. Last year, copper did hit a seasonal low in November, bounced and retested the low in January before shooting higher until the end of March.

 

Cumulative profit, based upon trading a single futures contract excluding commissions and fees, is a respectable $109,775. A little less than one-fifth of that profit came in 2007, as the cyclical boom in the commodity market magnified that year’s seasonal price move. However, this trade has produced other notable big gains per single contract, such as the $16,350 gain from December 2020 to February 2021, and even back in 2011, it registered another substantial $14,475 gain. The worst loss occurred from December 2014 to 2015 when copper declined 11.8%, generating a theoretical loss of $8,625. These numbers show this trade can produce big wins and big losses if not properly managed. A basic trailing stop loss may have mitigated many of the historical losses while also allowing the trade to run longer if copper continued to gain in price beyond February.

 

Link to full table, click here… [note: it is a long table and it was intentionally NOT included]

 

In the following chart, the front-month copper futures weekly price moves (top pane), and seasonal pattern (bottom pane) are plotted. Typical seasonal strength in copper is depicted by a blue arrow and yellow shading in the lower pane of the chart. Last year’s seasonal period is visible in the top pane of the chart. Since copper’s late July plunge its trend has been steadily higher, and dips have been brief, and relatively shallow. Interest rate cuts by the Fed could also boost copper demand due to potentially lower interest rates for autos and houses.

 

 

One option that provides exposure to the copper futures market without having to have a futures trading account, is United States Copper (CPER). This ETF tracks the daily performance of the SummerHaven Copper Index Total Return less fund expenses. Due to renewed interest in copper, CPER’s daily volume has improved, and it frequently trades in excess of 500,000 shares per day. Stochastic, relative strength and MACD technical indicators applied to CPER are all positive and trending higher. 

 

A position in CPER can be considered on dips below a buy limit of $31.75. If purchased an initial stop loss of $28.02 is suggested. This trade will be tracked in the Almanac Investor Sector Rotation ETF Portfolio. For tracking purposes, CPER will be added to the portfolio should it trade below its buy limit.

 

 

Another way to gain exposure to copper and its seasonally strong period is through the companies that mine and produce copper. Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) holds shares of some of the largest copper miners and producers from across the globe. Its top five holdings as of October 29, 2025, are: Lundin Mining, Hudbay Minerals, Antofagasta, First Quantum, and KGHM Polska Miedz SA. COPX could be considered on dips below a buy limit of $62.50. If purchased, an initial stop loss of $55.16 is suggested. This trade will also be tracked in the Sector Rotation section of the ETF Portfolio. For tracking purposes, COPX will be added to the portfolio when it trades below its buy limit.

 

 

 

The Sector Rotation ETF portfolio has improved to an average gain of 3.1% as of the close on October 29. Our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal was early this year, but market weakness ahead of mid-October provided ample opportunity to establish positions at better levels. SPDR Gold (GLD) is still the best performing position in the portfolio, up 18.6% (and more including today’s gains). Historically, seasonal strength in gold (and silver) has lasted until the end of December, but with gold briskly retreating from all-time highs in mid-October, the highs of the current seasonal period could be in. GLD is on Hold, and its stop loss has been raised. 

 

Although only a modest factor in gold’s price now, the U.S. dollar index has begun to show signs of a bottom. It has quietly climbed back to nearly 100 after hitting a low in mid-September. As a result we are going to close out positions in Invesco CurrencyShares Euro (FXE) and Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc (FXF). Sell FXE and FXF. For tracking purposes they will be closed out using their respective average prices on Friday, October 31.

 

Per last week’s email Issue, November Outlook: Octoberphobia Sets Up Q4 Rally & Best 3 Months, iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) has been added back to the portfolio using its average price on October 24 of $62.78. The previous IBIT position was stopped out after bitcoin’s failed breakout. IBIT can still be considered at or near current levels up to its buy limit of $62.56.

 

Tech, biotech, and semiconductors are all performing well in the portfolio with IBB, XBI, IYW, and XLK up an average of 6.5% since being added the day after the Seasonal MACD Buy signal triggered. IBB, XBI, IYW and XLK can still be considered on dips.

 

Looking at consumer related ETFs, XLY and XLP, they have not moved much, yet. The federal government shutdown, softer employment indications, and tariffs are likely weighing on retailers and consumers. We suspect the consumer is waiting for holiday sales to begin in earnest and for the Fed’s most recent interest rate cut to provide some modest relief. XLY and XLP can be considered at or near current levels.

 

All other positions in the Sector Rotation portfolio can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits or at current levels. Some buy limits have been adjusted, where applicable, for recent gains in the table below.

 

 

 

The “Best Months” are essentially here with November arriving next week, the market has been rallying, and we remain bullish as post-election year 2025 approaches its end and on into early 2026. This has been our stance since our Seasonal MACD Buy signal criteria was met earlier this month and it has been paying off thus far with the Tactical Seasonal Switching portfolio gain climbing to 2.5% as of the close on October 29. 

 

Tech continues to lead with QQQ up 4.8%. Small-caps have been in and out recently and could continue to bounce around and move sideways until around mid-December when the “January Effect” has historically begun early, pages 110 & 112 of the Almanac. “Best Months” positions, QQQ, IWM, DIA and SPY can still be considered at or near current levels up to their respective buy limits.