Stock Portfolio Updates: Market Stumbles, But December Has Most Highs By: Christopher Mistal | November 06, 2025 | Email | Print

It has now been a little more than a week since DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 last closed at new all-time highs. As of today’s close, DJIA is the closest to its October high, off 1.7%. S&P 500 was 2.5% below its closing high while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are 3.8% and 4.0% below their respective highs. In the brief time since those highs, many have begun to wonder if that was the high for the year and whether or not the market has begun another correction.

 

First let’s take a look at the market’s historical distribution of annual highs by month using data for DJIA and S&P 500 since 1950, NASDAQ since 1971 and Russell 2000 since 1979. The month with the most annual highs, and not by a small margin, is December. Over 40% of DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 annual highs have been in December. NASDAQ has had the largest percentage at 46.3%. Since 2003, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have all set their annual highs in December 11 times and in the same period there were three additional years when the annual highs were split between December and November.

 

October has hosted a few years of annual highs, but the only year when all four indexes peaked in October was 1989. At that time, the market corrected and the economy entered a recession in July 1990, one month before Iraq invaded Kuwait, kicking off the first Gulf War. Based upon the number of annual highs in October, it ranks fourth in frequency. However, October’s total number of index annual highs is just 19 times compared to 108 times for December. Although there is never a guarantee, market history suggests, and the calendar still permits, the market could still climb higher before year end to set new all-time and annual highs.

 

 

As for the beginning of a correction, or even a new bear, market history suggests the bulls may not be ready to surrender just yet. Based upon S&P 500 bull and bear markets along with corrections (defined as a decline from peak to trough in the range of 10-19.9%), the current bull market is only slightly above half the S&P 500 average bull market since 1949. At S&P 500’s October 28, high close, it was up 92.6% compared to its historical bull market average of 177.4%. The current bull market is also below average in duration, 1112 calendar days versus an average of 1863.

 

Even a correction (10 to 19.9% decline) now appears somewhat out of line with market history. Since 1948 there have been 27 corrections during S&P 500 bull markets. On average they have occurred around once every 522 calendar days. The last correction ended 251 days ago (based upon an October 28 high close) plus two corrections starting in the same year has only happened one previous time, midterm year 2018.

 

 

While it is somewhat unsettling to see the market struggle during historically favorable periods like now, it did rally substantially from its early April lows, pushing valuations in some areas of the market to lofty levels. The federal government shutdown drags on with no clear end in sight and inflation is still elevated, likely souring consumer sentiment. However, the shutdown will end at some point, inflation is not spiking higher, the Fed is cutting interest rates and quantitative tightening is scheduled to end later this month while AI development and infrastructure spending is boosting economic activity.

 

In the near-term, some additional market volatility and choppiness are likely as the market consolidates its gains, but the rally is likely to resume and lift the market to new highs by year end. 

 

 

Over the past four weeks, through the close on November 5, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio slipped 1.4% lower, excluding dividends and any potential interest on the cash position, compared to a 0.6% advance by S&P 500 and a 0.8% decline by Russell 2000. Across the portfolio, small-cap positions were best on average, advancing 0.7% while mid- and large-cap positions declined on average.

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) can be considered at current levels up to a buy limit of $1. Q3 financial results were reported today. Revenue increased 354% year over year largely due to its acquisition of Orion Health. Management is working to narrow the company’s focus through strategic divestments, acquisitions, and joint ventures. Shares have been stuck right around $1 per share for most of the year and are likely to continue to bounce around this level as management continues to develop and market its AI-driven healthcare solutions around the globe.

 

EZCorp (EZPW) still has not been added to the portfolio and it has not run too far away. EZPW can be considered on dips with a revised buy limit of $17.45. EZPW owns and operates pawn businesses in the US and in Latin American. Valuations remain attractive and it is likely to benefit (at least indirectly) from higher precious metal prices.

 

Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) reported financial results today and they did not disappoint. Shares of COLL closed today up over 13%. Revenues jumped over 30% compared to a year ago resulting in solid beats on the top and bottom lines. Today’s gains are not reflected in the table below. COLL can still be considered on dips. 

 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) quarterly results were a disappointment, and shares took a hit. SMCI’s decline since last update was responsible for about half of the entire portfolio’s decline. Revenue and profit were below estimates. This miss was likely further compounded by broader weakness across the AI sector. One potential positive for SMCI was the misses were apparently the result of changes in delivery schedules. If this holds, then the expected revenue and earnings could show up in the next earnings report. We have taken profits on SMCI twice already at much higher levels. SMCI is on Hold.

 

Grand Canyon Ed (LOPE) has been hammered over the last two weeks. It did settle some legal matters but at a lofty $35 million price tag. This hit, combined with quarterly results that were just in line with expectations, triggered waves of selling and LOPE closed below its stop loss today. LOPE will be closed out on Friday November 7. The final price will appear in the next Stock Portfolio update.

 

TBBK, CVLT, and HESM have also been stopped out of the portfolio. TBBK missed both revenue and earnings estimates and lowered full-year guidance. CVLT collapsed on an earnings miss that triggered some analysts to lower their price targets. CVLT is growing revenues, but margins are apparently shrinking. Broader energy market weakness and earnings expectations were the main catalysts for HESM closing below its stop loss.

 

AT&T (T) was stopped out on October 23 when it closed below its stop at $24.82. T was the oldest holding in the portfolio and was originally added for its sizable dividend. If you had purchased it for its dividend, it is likely perfectly acceptable to continue holding it.

 

Please see table below for most recent advice. Note some stop losses and buy limits have been updated to account for recent market moves.