ETF Trades & Updates: Seasonal Energy Bounce & Early December Chop By: Christopher Mistal | December 04, 2025 | Email | Print

For those who were unable to attend the member’s only webinar on Tuesday before Thanksgiving, the slides and video recording are available here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). In addition to the seasonal pattern charts we have been tracking and presenting throughout the year, Jeff reviewed the numerous seasonal indicators and patterns that occur in December and carryover into January along with an early look at how the market could fare in midterm-election year 2026.

 

Shortly after first half of December choppiness comes to an end, most likely just ahead of quarterly options expiration on Friday December 19th, we will serve up the annual Free Lunch basket of stocks, page 116 of the Almanac, via email Issue before the market opens on December 22. Around the same time, we will be looking for small-cap outperformance to accelerate in earnest, pages 112 and 114, followed by our Santa Claus Rally, the First Five Days of January and the full-month January Barometer. For now, we remain bullish as this is the seasonal favorable period for stocks. Valuations in some areas of the market are a concern, but economic data appears to be generally holding up, and the Fed is back on track for another interest rate cut next week.

 

 

November’s 0.13% gain by S&P 500 extended its consecutive winning month streak to seven straight months. The current monthly winning streak is the 17th time since 1949 that S&P 500 has accomplished this feat. Looking back at the previous 16 times, the S&P 500 was up seven months in a row, S&P 500 was also up in the eighth month 62.5% of the time with a median advance of 1.20% (average gain of 0.81%). When S&P 500 was up in the eighth month its average performance jumped to 3.14%. Performance 2-, 3-, and 6-months later was also positive. It is also notable that five S&P 500 monthly winning streaks ultimately went on to last nine or more months with three lasting an amazing eleven months.

 

 

Contrary to the thought that such streaks must be “stealing” from future performance, it is encouraging to see 3- and 6-month later performance are positive 87.5% of the time with average gains of 3.98% and 7.02% respectively. This does appear to bode well for the current “Best Months” with solid potential gains through April and/or May of next year. We will be looking for positive readings from our January Trifecta of indicators, Santa Claus Rally, First Five Days, and January Barometer to confirm.

 

 

Oil companies typically come into favor in mid-December and remain so until late April or early May in the following year (blue arrow and yellow shade in lower pane). This trade has averaged 11.18%, 10.16%, and 12.44% over the last 25-, 10-, and 5-year periods respectively. Seasonal strength in crude oil has also been ending sooner, typically in late April or early May instead of late June or July over the past ten years. As a reminder, this seasonality is not based upon the commodity itself (crude oil or natural gas); rather it is based upon NYSE ARCA Oil & Gas index (XOI). This price-weighted index is composed of major companies that produce and explore for oil and gas.

 

 

SPDR Energy (XLE) is the top pick to trade this seasonal setup. A new position in XLE can be considered on dips up to a buy limit of $88.10. Employ an initial stop loss of $77.75. Consider taking profits at the auto-sell price of $107.74. Exxon Mobil is the top holding in XLE at 23.21%. The next five holdings of XLE are Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Williams Companies, EOG and Marathon Petroleum. For tracking purposes, XLE will be added to the portfolio if it trades below its buy limit.

 

 

A second option that could also perform is SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES). Domestic production and supplies of crude oil and natural gas are currently ample. But the current administration is pushing to bring even more supply to market. This could also lead to increased demand for oil & gas equipment and services. XES can be considered on dips below a buy limit of $80.05. If purchased, consider utilizing an initial stop loss at $70.64. For tracking purposes, XES will be added to the portfolio when it trades below its buy limit.

 

 

Historically this energy trade has either been a grand slam homerun or a bust. During the 2021-2022 seasonally favorable period, energy spiked higher after Russia invaded Ukraine and XLE quickly traded up to and through its auto-sell price for gains in excess of 25% in just a few months. In the next seasonal window during 2022 to 2023 energy prices fell and XLE was a bust. For 2023 to 2024 the trade produced a typical, modestly above average gain of 13% while last year it was a bust.

 

XLE and XES have been trending higher recently, but both are still lagging behind the broader market. The current administration has repeatedly and clearly stated it wants lower energy prices and that has been the trend for crude oil’s price. Analysts are also starting to lower their price estimates for crude oil next year even as the U.S. Department of Energy has announced contracts to put crude oil into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

 

Forecasts can be wrong and energy markets can change direction quickly, but it does appear it would require a significant disruption to crude supplies to produce a sustainable rally in crude’s price. Expectations for a meaningful rally in energy and energy stocks should be carefully considered and associated positions in XLE and XES may need additional monitoring. Headlines pertaining to a Russia/Ukraine cease fire or peace deal could move crude oil in either direction. 

 

 

In accordance with the October 30th, email Issue, Invesco CurrencyShares Euro (FXE) and Invesco CurrencyShares Swiss Franc (FXF) have been sold and closed out of the portfolio for modest gains of 2.6% and 2.7% respectively. As of today’s close, FXF is lower than the exit price in the portfolio while FXE is slightly higher. FXF has historically traded in rhythm with gold, as gold price stalled so did FXF. FXE has historically benefited from some strength near yearend, but it does look like the U.S. dollar has found its footing and is stabilizing in a new range thus limiting further meaningful gains.

 

SPDR Gold (GLD) is the best performing position in the portfolio up 26.4% as of its close on December 3. Historically, gold has generally reached a seasonal peak in late December or early in the New Year. Because this is a seasonal trade and not a long-term holding, the stop loss has been raised to $380 while we look to close out the position into strength. Sell GLD at $390 or higher.

 

At the opposite end of the performance spectrum is iShares Bitcoin (IBIT). Typical seasonal strength has not materialized, and Bitcoin has fallen sharply from its early October highs. The lows of March and April this year have held, and technical indicators are beginning to improve with relative strength and MACD improving. IBIT is on Hold with a tight stop loss at $52. 

 

Last Issue’s new trades in United States Copper (CPER) and Global X Copper Miners (COPX) have been added to the portfolio and are up 4.8% and 9.9% respectively. Demand for copper remains solid and its uptrend remains intact. CPER and COPX can be considered on dips. 

 

Invesco DB Agriculture (DBA) has been stuck in the mud. DBA holds a basket of agricultural commodities that can move in different directions resulting in flat performance. However, its two largest holdings, corn and live cattle, have historically exhibited strength from now into March and May respectively and both have been showing signs of strength recently. DBA is on Hold.

 

iShares DJ US Telecom (IYZ) is also on Hold. Seasonal strength in the sector has usually come to an end in late December. As of today’s close, IYZ is modestly positive and it could continue to trend modestly higher in anticipation of Fed interest rate cuts.

 

All other positions in the Sector Rotation portfolio can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits or at current levels. Buy limits and stop losses have been adjusted, where applicable, for recent gains in the table below.

 

 

 

After closing out November with impressive weekly gains, the market is exhibiting some choppy trading here in the first week of December. This is not unusual following a brisk move nor is it unexpected as December’s typical seasonal pattern indicates. Based upon that pattern we are anticipating that once tax-loss selling abates, the market will likely resume its run higher in the second half of December and likely into the New Year.

 

From now until second-half December strength materializes, “Best Months” positions, QQQ, IWM, DIA and SPY can still be considered near current levels up to their respective buy limits.