Stock Portfolio Updates: December Rally Arriving By: Christopher Mistal | December 18, 2025 | Email | Print

If you missed our member’s only webinar yesterday, December 17, the slides and a link to the video recording can be found here (or copy and paste in a new browser window: https://www.stocktradersalmanac.com/LandingPages/webinar-archive.aspx). This webinar was focused almost exclusively on our 2026 Forecast and January 2026 Outlook. Based upon the 6th year of presidential terms along with the current outlook for economic growth and monetary policy, our base case scenario for 2026 has improved when compared to the older outlook in the 2026 Stock Trader’s Almanac. Rather than a typical, old school, ugly, and highly volatile midterm year, we are now looking for full-year gains in 2026 of around 8-12%.

 

For those that track the Decennial Cycle (STA page 131), years ending in “6,” are on a solid run. In addition to DJIA’s streak of five straight gains in years ending in 6, S&P 500 has matched that streak, while NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have never declined in a year ending in 6. S&P 500’s average gain in years ending in 6 since 1976 is an impressive 15.4%. All the tables and data for the Decennial Cycle were included in yesterday’s 2026 Annual Forecast webinar.

 

Although we did not provide specific forecasts for gold, silver, bitcoin, crude oil, natural gas, and copper, we did cover their respective performance in midterm years and 6th years of presidential terms with seasonal pattern charts for all. Midterm seasonals for gold, silver, and copper suggest the current rally could easily extend into the New Year. Current weakness in energy could also persist in 2026 based upon midterm seasonal patterns for crude and natural gas. Bitcoin has historically had a tough time in midterm years, and its recent weakness could morph into a nasty bear next year if investor interest continues to wane.

 

In the near-term, we remain bullish and are encouraged by today’s rally. Compared to December’s performance in previous post-election years, today’s advance appears to have arrived right on seasonal cue following a choppy and volatile first half of December. The volatility this December is clearly visible in the following chart with 2025 plotted on the right scale which is double the historical averages.

 

 

As of today’s close, DJIA and Russell 2000 are positive for December, up 0.49% and 0.30% respectively. NASDAQ has been the weakest, down 1.54% with tech-heavy S&P 500 and Russell 1000 also down just over 1%. It is also notable that this December’s NASDAQ and S&P 500 underperformance is consistent with past post-election years. Provided the market can hold today’s gains the second half of December rally has likely begun. Historically bullish week after quarterly options expiration (STA page 108) combined with holiday cheer (STA page 80) could propel the market higher through year end.

 

 

Over the past six weeks, through the close on December 17, the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio slipped 1.6% lower, excluding dividends and any potential interest generated by the cash position, compared to a 1.1% decline by S&P 500 and a 1.1% gain by Russell 2000. Across the portfolio, small-cap positions were best on average, advancing 3.5% while mid- and large-cap positions declined on average.

 

HealWell AI (HWAIF) is on Hold. Broader market AI valuation concerns and likely tax-loss selling has driven HWAIF to its lowest levels ever. The magnitude of the sell-off does appear overdone and we will be looking for a rebound early next year and a likely exit as patience has run thin with management. Management did deliver on its revenue and earnings forecasts, but it still needs a mainstream exchange listing. HWAIF was and still is a highly speculative trade. 

 

EZCorp (EZPW) was added to the portfolio on November 7 when it first traded below its updated buy limit. EZPW can still be considered on dips below its buy limit. As an owner and operator of pawn businesses in the US and Latin America, it is likely to continue to benefit from a murky US labor market and record high prices for silver and gold. EZPW’s double-digit gain since addition to the portfolio contributed to small-cap outperformance.

 

Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) has continued to climb since last month’s earnings report, and it closed at a new 52-week and all-time highs today. Major analysts have begun to notice and price targets are on the rise. Earnings estimates are also bullishly moving higher while its valuation appears reasonable. COLL can still be considered on dips. 

 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) woes have persisted, and its retreat is responsible for a substantial amount of the portfolio’s overall decline. Broader AI valuation concerns combined with SMCI’s tumultuous history are most likely the main forces behind its retreat. SMCI appears to be on course to test its April lows. If that level holds, it could be the support shares are desperately seeking. SMCI is on Hold.

 

Grand Canyon Ed (LOPE) was stopped out on November 6 and has been closed out of the portfolio for a total gain of 22.0%.

 

InterDigital (IDCC) and OSI Systems (OSIS) have also come under pressure and retreated from their respective highs from October and early November. Their combined declines were another drag on overall portfolio performance. IDCC and OSIS are both technology companies and are likely suffering from broad tech weakness and profit taking. Their valuations do not appear to be at the extremes associated with other technology companies. IDCC and OSIS are on Hold.

 

Rambus (RMBS) was added to the portfolio on November 13 when it dipped below its buy limit of $95. RMBS uptrend off its April low appears intact but it has gotten much more volatile over the past few months. RMBS can still be considered at current levels up to its buy limit.

 

Encompass Health (EHC) has struggled since releasing earnings in late October. Earnings were better than estimates but apparently not enough to appease investors. At its current price it has relatively attractive valuation metrics and trades at a sizable discount to analyst’s price targets. EHC can be considered at current levels up to a buy limit of $110.

 

Please see table below for most recent advice. Note some stop losses and buy limits have been updated to account for recent market moves.