ETF Portfolios & Free Lunch Updates: Gains Build in New Year By: Christopher Mistal | January 08, 2026 | Email | Print

Free Lunch stocks have gotten off to a mixed start with the entire basket up a modest 0.1% as of the close today, January 8. All 21 stocks selected traded within a range of -3% to +3% of their respective December 19 closing prices on Monday, December 22 and will appear in the Almanac Investor Stock Portfolio in the next update scheduled for January 15. Using the suggested 8% trailing stop loss based upon daily closing price, AMC, GO, and HPK have been stopped out already. Of the 18 remaining, 8 are higher and 10 are lower. The best performing stock is Gogo Inc (GOGO), which is up 8.8% overall with nearly all of its gain produced today. Second best is National Storage Affiliates Trust with an 8.1% advance.

 

 

As a reminder, Free Lunch stocks are not intended to be held for long, and we will be looking to exit them no later than around mid-February. Should a sizable profit present itself, do not hesitate to lock it in. The exact definition of a sizable profit is yours to decide. We will continue to hold the eighteen remaining positions with the suggested 8% trailing stop loss based on closing prices.

 

 

No new long sector seasonality trades start in January. There is a short trade associated with Computer Tech that begins in January and runs until early March, but this trade has been hit or miss in recent years, so we are going to pass on it this time around. The long seasonality in Computer Tech would end now and begin again in April. SPDR Technology (XLK), the corresponding position to the long Computer Tech seasonality, will be held and can be considered on dips.

 

Three other sectors end seasonally favorable periods in January: Info Tech, Broker/Dealer, and Pharmaceutical. iShares US Technology (IYW) was added to trade Info Tech’s seasonality. Similar to Computer Tech, Info Tech starts a new bullish seasonality in March. Rather than sell IYW at a minimal gain now and buy it again in March, we will continue to hold it. IYW can be considered on dips.

 

Broker/Dealer and Pharmaceutical exposure was bundled with Banking and Healthcare in October due to overlap in corresponding ETF holdings. With Banking and Healthcare sector strength running until May, SPDR Financial (XLF) and SPDR Healthcare (XLV) can still be considered on dips below their buy limits.

 

In accordance with the December 4, email Issue, SPDR Gold (GLD) was sold and closed out of the portfolio when it first traded above $390.00 on December 5, 2025 for a 27.4% gain. GLD did continue higher to fresh new all-time highs in late December, but its momentum appears to be fading. If GLD has not already been closed out, consider implementing a tight trailing stop loss or an outright sale or partial sale to lock in profits as seasonal strength in gold has historically ended in December.

 

Last month’s new trade ideas, SPDR Energy (XLE) and S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (XES), aimed at taking advantage of historical seasonal strength in the oil sector beginning around mid-December and lasting until around July have been added to the portfolio. XES was added on December 16 and was up 7.5% as of its close on January 7. XLE, was added two days later on December 18 and was up 2.5% yesterday. Buy limits and stop losses for XLE and XES have been updated and both can still be considered on dips.

 

Broad based demand for copper has pushed it back to new all-time highs earlier this week and corresponding positions in United States Copper (CPER) and Global X Copper Miners (COPX) have risen to gains of 13.9% and 23.6% respectively. CPER and COPX can also be considered on dips below their respective updated buy limits. Demand for copper is wide ranging from traditional uses in developing nations to AI, robotics and electric cars while new supply is lagging.

 

Bitcoin failed to rally during its historically favorable period during Q4, and iShares Bitcoin (IBIT) was stopped out on December 5 when it closed below its stop loss of $52.00. Since then, IBIT has gone essentially nowhere and is currently still below $52. Historically, bitcoin has struggled in midterm years, and its recent performance has done little to reduce concerns about another potentially challenging midterm year in 2026.

 

Seasonal strength in the telecom sector has historically ended in late December and iShares DJ US Telecom (IYZ) appears to be losing momentum. Sell IYZ above $34.00 or if it closes below its stop loss at $33.25. 

 

iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) is on Hold. Seasonal strength in the semiconductor sector has generally come to an end in February and despite breaking out to new highs earlier this week it has already begun to stumble.

 

Invesco DB Agriculture (DBA) is on Hold. As noted in the last update, DBA holds a basket of various agricultural commodities that can move in different directions resulting in no net gains. However, its two largest holdings have tended to exhibit strength during Q1.

 

All other positions in the Sector Rotation portfolio can still be considered on dips below their respective buy limits or at current levels. Buy limits and stop losses have been adjusted, where applicable, for recent gains in the table below.

 

 

 

Although the final four trading days of December were weak, the major indexes did close out 2025 with solid gains and the turning of the calendar to 2026 has seen a pickup in buying with respectable gains over the first five trading days of the New Year. Boosted by this New Year strength, the Tactical Seasonal Switching Portfolio was up 3.7% on average as of the close on January 7. SPDR DJIA (DIA) is the best performing position, up 5.0%. iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) is second best, up 4.1% while SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) and Invescos QQQ (QQQ) are both up 2.9%.

 

This January has gotten off to a solid start but January’s have historically been weaker in midterm years since 1950. Should any typical mid-January weakness materialize this year, it could be an opportunity to add to existing positions. “Best Months” positions, QQQ, IWM, DIA and SPY can still be considered near current levels up to their respective buy limits.