Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, February 2026 Outlook & Update on Wednesday February 4, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for February 2026, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share assessments of the economy, the Fed, inflation, geopolitical events, gold, silver, copper, energy as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
1/29/2026: Dow 49071.56 | S&P 6969.01 | NASDAQ 23685.12 | Russell 2K 2654.78 | NYSE 22875.46 | Value Line Arith 12764.88
Seasonal: Neutral. February can be a “weak link” in the “Best Months.” Longer-term market performance has been rather tepid in February with average performance ranging from –0.02% from S&P 500 (since 1950) to 1.0% by Russell 2000 (since 1979). In midterm years, February has been better with average gains across the board ranging from 0.3% to 1.3%. S&P 500 performance in February has followed January’s direction 61.8% of the time since 1950, however when S&P 500 was up 2% or more in January, it has consolidated or pulled back in February 66.7% of the time.
Fundamental: Mixed. Government generated economic data has yet to fully recover from the last shutdown as another partial shutdown looms in just days. Nonetheless, available data has generally indicated improvement or at a minimum resilience. Inflation still exists and is running above the Fed’s stated target, but it has been stable enough for the Fed to cut rates. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model’s forecast for Q4 GDP is 4.2% January 29 update. This is down from an impressive 5.4% in its previous update. Even 4.2% would suggest an acceleration of growth. Our favorite labor market indicator, Initial Claims (not seasonally adjusted) is in retreat signaling employment is holding up. Big tech earnings have been mixed but generally remain positive. Corporate guidance is as important as ever.
Technical: Consolidating. DJIA, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 have all closed at new all-time highs this year. NASDAQ has not. All four are above their respective 50- and 200-day moving averages, confirming they are still in uptrends. Until proven otherwise, recent weakness is likely just a healthy pause to consolidate gains since Thanksgiving.
Monetary: 3.50 – 3.75%. The Fed has shifted back into “wait and see” mode putting the future of additional interest rate cuts back in limbo. Big picture, they are in a rate-cutting cycle, which has historically been bullish for the stock market. One action they could consider if they are truly concerned about their independence might be to go back into the background where they operated for decades instead of constantly giving speeches and interviews to anyone at any time. Less “Fed speak” and commentary could actually be better for everyone.
Sentiment: Elevated. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 61.5%. Correction advisors are at 23.1% and Bearish advisors were just 15.4% as of their January 28 release. Bullish advisors have been trending higher since Thanksgiving and have now reached a level where some caution is warranted. Bullish sentiment can and has lingered at elevated levels in the past with continued market gains but eventually something has given. Either the bulls get spooked and retreat and/or the market pulls back. The exact timing and trigger are challenging to pinpoint, hence a cautious stance.