S&P 500 gained 1.4% in January and thus our January Barometer is positive for 2026. Devised by Yale Hirsch in 1972, the
January Barometer has registered 12 major errors since 1950 (with full-year 2025 included) for an 84.2% accuracy ratio. This indicator adheres to propensity that
as the S&P 500 goes in January, so goes the year. Of the 12 major errors, nine have occurred since 2001. Including the eight flat years yields a .737 batting average.
Our January Indicator Trifecta combines the Santa Claus Rally (SCR), the First Five Days Early Warning System (FFD) and our full-month January Barometer (JB). The predictive power of the three is considerably greater than any of them alone. It was certainly on the mark in 2023 when all three were positive and S&P 500 gained 24.2%. However, this year is just the sixth time (including 1949) that the SCR was down, while the FFD and the JB were positive.
Focusing on just the positive JB alone has a solid track record. Up Januarys are followed by up years, 89.1% of the time (41/46 years) with an average S&P 500 gain of 16.9%. 11 of 19 of the last midterm years followed January’s direction. When January is positive in midterm years (shaded in grey in table below), 6 of 9 full years were up with an average gain of 15.4%. Full-year declines occurred in 1966, 1994, and 2018. The worst was a 13.1% full-year loss in 1966. (See STA 2026 page 18 for more.)
With our January indicators complete, we are affirming our
2026 Base Case scenario for average full-year gains of around 8-12% with some chop and volatility most likely sometime during late Q2 through Q3, or the “Weak Spot” of the 4-year election cycle. Seasonals continue to track, economic growth and the labor market are holding up, but trade policy, monetary policy and geopolitical events remain concerns.
Vegas Baby!
Later this month Jeff will be speaking at the Las Vegas MoneyShow at Paris Las Vegas (Feb 23–25, 2026) — and he’ll be sharing his updated Midterm Year 2026 Outlook, including what our January Barometer 2026 signal, the 4-Year Cycle, and the AI Tech Super Boom are telling us next.
This is shaping up to be a pivotal market year—and potentially a major opportunity for prepared investors and traders.
He’ll be hosting two in-depth workshops:
• Midterm Election Years: The Sweet Spot of the 4-Year Cycle
Why 2026 could set up the next major buying opportunity—and why he expects as much as a 50% market move from the 2026 low to the 2027 high. He’ll break down key 4-Year Cycle trends, seasonal trades, and timely sector opportunities.
• AI Tech Super Boom: Hot Stocks & Seasonal Sector Trades
The AI race isn’t slowing down. he’ll zero in on off-the-radar, undervalued AI stocks, hot sector plays, and seasonal trades positioned to benefit as the global AI arms race accelerates.
If you want three days of high-impact market education, expert analysis, and actionable ideas, he’d love to see you there.
Click here to register:
See you in Vegas!