As part of the Best Six/Eight Months, March has historically been a satisfactory month with DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 & 2000, advancing more than 63% of the time with average gains ranging from 0.6% by Russell 2000 to 1.0% by S&P 500. Over the recent 21-year period (2005-2025), March has tended to open positively with modest average gains accumulating over the first three trading days. A bout of weakness has followed (solid arrow below) before all indexes begin moving higher around mid-month through month’s end.
In midterm election years since 1950, March has also tended to open strongly, but strength has generally persisted until around the first day of Spring (dashed arrow below). At which point, the major indexes lost momentum and closed out March with some choppy trading. One possible reason for stronger performance in midterm-election-year Marchs is the tough time the market has had in historically tepid February.
![[Recent 21-Year & Midterm Year March Seasonal Pattern Chart]](/UploadedImage/AIN_0326_20260219_March_2026_Seasonal_Chart.jpg)
March packs a rather busy docket. It is the end of the first quarter, which brings with it quarterly Triple Witching and an abundance of portfolio maneuvers from The Street. March Triple-Witching Weeks have been quite bullish in recent years. But the week after has been nearly the exact opposite, DJIA down 23 of the last 38 years—and often down sharply. In 2018, DJIA lost 1413 points (–5.67%) Notable gains during the week after for DJIA of 4.88% in 2000, 3.06% in 2007, 6.84% in 2009, 3.05% in 2011, and a staggering 12.84% in 2020, are the rare exceptions to this historically poor performing timeframe.
Historically a consistently performing market month, March improves in midterm-election years (see Vital Statistics table below). In midterm years March ranks: 4th best for DJIA and S&P 500 and 3rd best for NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000. DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 1000 and 2000 have been positive in six of the last seven midterm Marchs. NASDAQ has been slightly softer, with gains in five of the last seven.
Saint Patrick’s Day is March’s sole recurring cultural event. Gains on Saint Patrick’s Day have been greater than the day before and the day after. Perhaps it’s the anticipation of the patron saint’s holiday that boosts the market and the distraction from the parade down Fifth Avenue that causes equity markets to languish. Or maybe it’s the fact that Saint Pat’s often falls in historically bullish Triple-Witching Week.
Whatever the case, since 1950, the S&P 500 posts an average gain of +0.27% on Saint Patrick’s Day (or the next trading day when it falls on a weekend), a gain of +0.05% the day after and the day before averages a +0.14% advance. S&P 500 median values are +0.18% on the day before, +0.25% on Saint Patrick’s Day and 0.05% on the day after. In the eleven years when St. Patrick’s Day fell on a Tuesday, like this year, since 1950, the day before (Monday) produced an average loss of –1.02%, while Tuesday averaged +1.14% and the following Wednesday declined on average –0.12%. March 2020 does heavily influence average performance with S&P 500 dropping 12% on Tuesday, March 16, 2020.