Please take a moment and register for our members’ only webinar, March 2026 Outlook & Update on Wednesday March 4, 2026, at 4:00 PM EDT here:
Please join us for an Almanac Investor Member’s Only discussion of recent market action with time for Q & A at the end. Jeff and Chris will cover their outlook for March 2026, review the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy ETF, Sector Rotation ETF, and Stock Portfolio holdings and trades. We will also share assessments of the economy, the Fed, inflation, geopolitical events, gold, silver, copper, energy as well as relevant updates to seasonals now in play.
If you are unable to attend the live event, please still register. Within a day of completion, we will send out an email with links to access the recording and the slides to everyone that registers.
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar and a reminder message.
Market at a Glance
2/26/2026: Dow 49499.20 | S&P 6908.86 | NASDAQ 22878.38 | Russell 2K 2677.29 | NYSE 23524.84 | Value Line Arith 13057.46
Seasonal: Improving. March has historically been a respectable month for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 with average gains ranging from 0.6% from Russell 2000 to 1.0% by S&P 500 in all years. In midterm years, March has generally been even stronger with average gains expanding to 1.1% by DJIA to an impressive 2.5% from Russell 2000. DJIA and S&P 500 have been positive in six of the last seven midterm Marchs.
Fundamental: Mixed. After a messy Q4 forecast due to the Federal government shutdown, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently estimates Q1 growth at 3.1%. Inflation continues to run at a stubbornly elevated level but did hint at some degree of cooling with consumer prices (CPI) coming in below expectations in January at 2.4% year-over-year. Nonfarm employment was also better than anticipated in January with 130,000 job gains. All reasonably fair numbers yet room for improvement remains. Corporate earnings were generally better than expected, but that result has essentially become the norm leaving traders and investors generally wanting for more.
Technical: Rotation. DJIA closed at new all-time highs, above 50,000 for the first time, in February, but S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 did not. DJIA did close below its 50-day moving average once this month while NASDAQ spent most of the month below its 50-day moving average. Money has moved out of technology but not completely out of the market. Key levels to watch are December’s closing lows for DJIA and S&P 500 at 47289 and 6721 respectively. For NASDAQ, its November closing low at 22078.
Monetary: 3.50 – 3.75%. Based upon the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the Fed is not likely to make any changes to interest rates until sometime later in the second half of the year with just a 67.4% chance for a rate reduction in July. It seems reasonable to believe that this tool is also taking into consideration a change of leadership at the Fed as well. If this is the case, the Fed and its board members will likely remain busy giving speeches and media interviews as they continue to await new economic data. This lack of a unified message from the Fed likely does more harm than good.
Sentiment: Elevated. According to
Investor’s Intelligence Advisors Sentiment survey Bullish advisors stand at 55.6%. Correction advisors are at 29.6% and Bearish advisors were just 14.8% as of their February 25 release. Compared to last month, overall sentiment has eased slightly. Some bullish advisors have shifted to correction, but outright bearish advisors remain subdued. Based upon sentiment, caution is still in order. Stick with sectors and/or stocks that have been working while avoiding highly speculative areas that have been struggling lately.